Wednesday 26 September 2012


Monday 24th September
Kempton
5.20 – Islesman 1pt win 6/1
Islesman has been a very disappointing sort over the past 12 months, but there is no doubting that he is well enough handicapped to win this, if bouncing back to form after an 89 day break.
His last victory was in a course and distance handicap last June, off a mark of 78.  He is now down to 72, and the booking of Richard Hughes would imply that he is thought to be fit enough to go close.

1st 

5.50 – Shamir 1pt win 7/1
Shamir is another horse who is below his last winning mark, and again he has plenty of course form.  Unlike Islesman though, he actually shaped quite well in a class 2 handicap last time.
Today he is back down to a class 4, where he has won 3 out of his 4 course and distance handicaps in this grade.  Again he is the best handicapped horse in the race if returning to the level of form that he was showing just over 12 months ago.

1st

Monday 24 September 2012


Saturday 22nd September
Newmarket
5.05 –   The Tichborne 1pt win 8/1
& Crown Choice 0.5pt win 20/1
When The Tichborne finished 3rd, in a highly competitive Royal Ascot handicap, last year as a 3 year old, it looked as though he was a horse firmly on the up.  Since then he has declined rapidly, and his trainer has been constantly saying, that for some reason that day scarred him mentally, and his confidence has been shot since.
That all changed at Lingfield last time though, when he seemed suited to the drop back to 6 furlongs, and had a much needed confidence boosting win.  He really did seem to be a horse back on track and was pulling right away in the final furlong.  If that race is the catalyst for him to get his career back on track, then he still has loads of scope from a handicapping point of view.  He races off 73 today, and was 90 at his peak.
I can’t resist having a small wager on Crown Choice as well.  I’ve followed this horse all year, as I expected him to improve on joining the Paul Midgley stable, having joined them from Walter Swinburn.  In all honesty he has shown very little this season, and his profile would suggest that he has not been easy to keep sound.  Today he turns up on the back of another short break, having shaped slightly better over an inadequate trip at Goodwood last time.  Today he has ideal conditions, and a career low mark.
Paul Midgley doesn’t send many horses down to Newmarket – only 7 in the last 5 seasons, which could be quite significant, as Crown Choice produced his best ever performance at the course when beaten just over 2 lengths off a mark of 97 last season.  He races off just 80 today.  At a massive price he’s worth a small wager.
Catterick
5.25 – Drive Home 2pt win 5/1
Drive home was very unlucky when getting no luck in running at Musselburgh on Monday.  We had put him up at 8/1 in the morning, and he was backed as if defeat was out the question, when going off at 5/2.  Given better luck in running he could well recoup those loses today.
He’s off the same mark today, and conditions are again spot on.  This race does look more competitive than Monday’s, but he still represents value at 5/1.

1st

Ayr
5.15 – Capail Laith 1pt win 13/2
We put Capail Laith up as a bet last weekend at Chester, only for him to be declared a non runner.  The same comments apply today about him.  He’s well handicapped, and has been shaping better than his recent form figures would suggest.  Today’s going will be no problem to him, having won on heavy at Newcastle earlier in the year.


Friday 21st September
Wolverhampton
7.00 – Roy The Boy 1pt win 6/1
Since encountering 7 furlongs on Polytrack, Roy The Boy has seemed a much more straightforward individual, and a reproduction of his effort at Wolverhampton on Monday, should see him win this evening.
I was keen to take on Willies Wonder and Right Result, as I don’t think the race that they finished 1st and 2nd in last time is particularly good form, and with the exception of Fast Finian, the rest of the opposition look handicapped to the hilt, or on the decline.
The Eddie Ahern/Alan Bailey combination isn’t one for maximum faith, but I expect this horse will be off to the sales next month, and I guess that they are keen on getting some solid form behind him before he goes.

Wednesday 19th September
Yarmouth
3.50 – Anjaz 2pt win 100/30
Anjaz shaped well, in what has worked out to be a really decent handicap at Haydock last time.  She raced freely early, but still looked the most likely winner at the 2 pole, only to fail to get home over the 12 furlong trip.  Stencive and Sir Graham Wade have franked the form since, and now dropping back to 10 furlongs, she is a strong fancy to win.
Today’s race is significantly less competitive than the Haydock race, with Commitment striking me as the only potential danger.  Providing they go a reasonable gallop, I expect her to be far too good for today’s opposition.  Anything around the 3/1 mark is worth taking.
Kempton
8.45 – Kuanyo 2pt win 6/1
The last time we saw Kuanyo, the Peter Makin stable were desperately out of form, having had just 1 winner in the first 7 months of the year.  They have turned the corner since, by having had 5 winners in the 5 past weeks, and if Kuanyo returns from his 8 week break in better heart, then he should win tonight.
He won a remarkable 6 handicaps on the bounce last summer, rising from 63 to 91 in the process, today he races off a mark of 82, which is 2 lbs below his last winning mark.  He has the plum draw in stall 1, and he has a very good record on Polytrack, having won 2 out of his 3 races on the surface.
I expect Seb Sanders to make all on him, and providing he is fully tuned up, he should take all the beating.


Monday 17th September
Musselburgh
2.10 – Drive Home 2pt win 8/1 generally
There are plenty of reasons to recommend Drive Home today, and he looks well overpriced at around 8/1 this morning.
Last time out he travelled well on the back of a 5 week break, until his stamina ran out in the final furlong.  That was over 8 furlongs, but today he is down to 7, which will suit him perfectly.  He is also 2 pounds below his last winning mark, and also has the cheek pieces back on.
On top of that he has plenty of course form, and has a nice draw in stall 2.  If he builds on that last run he should win today.

Friday 14th September
Doncaster
1.50 – Caravan Rolls On 1pt 6/1.
Caravan Rolls On has done nothing but progress in his light career so far, and he looks likely to go on again, now stepped up to a trip that looks sure to suit.
He hasn’t been the easiest horse to keep sound, but Peter Chapple-Hyam, nominated this race as his next port of call after his victory at Newmarket last time, so presumably he has come out of that race fine, and hasn’t missed any work since.
This looks a very competitive race, but Caravan Rolls On looks as though he is potentially the biggest improver in the field, and represents fair value this morning at 6/1.
4.05 – Galician 1pt 12/1.
Duke of Firenze is by far the most likely winner of this race, being a well-bred, progressive sort, that will almost certainly make up into a group sprinter next year, but he hardly represents value, at 2/1, in the most competitive race that he has ever raced in.
Galician on the other hand looks over priced.  He didn’t appear to handle the turns of Chester last time, but now back on a straight galloping course, he could well progress again.
He was a most unlucky loser 3 runs back, when given far too much to do by Chantal Sutherland at Ascot.  He backed that up when running ok at Newmarket, when the uneven pace didn’t suit him, but even so finished just behind Amadeus Wolfe Tone, who won a hot handicap at Doncaster yesterday.
Today’s race is sure to be strongly run, and he should run better than this morning’s price would imply.

Thursday 13th September
Epsom
4.15 – Cravat 1pt win 12/1 generally
There is a small, but select group of trainers that do well with horses that they acquire from other stables.  Ed de Giles is now in that bracket, and in Cravat he has a potentially really interesting new recruit to his team.
This time last year he won a competitive class 3 handicap at Chester off a mark of 85, and started this season off 91.  In all honesty Cravat has shown nothing this year, but this has resulted in his mark tumbling down to 72.
Ed de Giles paid 24,000 for him at the Doncaster Sales in August, and I’m pretty sure that this horse will be winning races over the coming months.  Today’s race looks weak, and conditions will be fine, so it just depends whether today is a fact finding mission, or whether they have him ready to go.  At around 12/1 it is worth taking the risk, either way he is certainly a horse to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.