Tuesday 29^th May

430 Chepstow

2pt win Yes Chief 7/2 generally

On firm ground, Chepstow is a something of a specialist’s course, as most horses become unbalanced on the undulations and find it hard to stride out fully. 

Yes Sir has raced 4 times at the course, finishing 1,2,2,2 and is rated 2lbs below his last victory.  He was disappointing last time at Newmarket, but I’m happy to put a line through that run as he’s never been at his best on a straight course, and his jockey may have gone too quick too early.  There are 2 other front runners in the race today, so providing James Milman applies some common sense, he will hopefully track the pace early and save a bit for the business end of the race.

I’m not sure the track will suit Sammy Alexander, and Smart Step and Kens Girl appear to be best with cut in the ground.  This leaves the race looking pretty weak, and providing Yes Chief is in top form, he should win today.

un

Monday 28^th May

8.20 Carlisle

2pt win Sangar 7/1 generally

Had some solid form for the grade last year, in a progressive campaign, and shaped as though there was more to come on her return to action at Beverley, before failing to stay the 12 furlongs last time.  The 10 furlongs on a stiff track today could see her improve again, and if she does she will take plenty of beating.

The favourite, Love Your Looks, was very impressive last time, but all of her form is on Polytrack, and she hinted that she may have a bit of temperament when flashing her tail under pressure, and carrying her head quite high , she’s up 10 lbs. and on a stiffer track, I’m happy to take her on.

un

Saturday 26^th May


4.00 Chester
Louis The Pious 2pt win 5/1 generally, 11/2 Hills


A race I was keen to get involved in, as although Eton Forever has a strong form chance, I’m not convinced that 7 furlongs around Chester will see him to best effect, and at around 9/4, it means that there is some decent value further down the list.  Pintura could well lack for speed too, and Viva Ronaldo is very inconsistent.  With Grissom, and Imperial Djay badly drawn, it left Louis The Pious as the most likely winner.

Kevin Ryan is convinced that Louis The Pious has improved during the winter, and although disappointing on his return to action, he didn’t go without promise.  He travelled with plenty of enthusiasm, but his stamina ran out in the heavy ground.  Over half a furlong shorter today, and on quicker ground, I expect a much better performance.  5/1 looks a fair price.

2nd


8.25 Newbury
Laughing Jack 1pt win 10/1 generally


Laughing Jack was an eye catcher last time at Kempton, as he was given far too much to do in a race which favoured those that raced close to the pace.  He has raced very keenly in some of his races, and I’m sure connections have been trying to teach him to settle.  The way he sustained his run last time suggests that the step up in trip should suit today, a view which is also supported by his breeding which is stacked full of stamina.
The ground could bring about further improvement too, as the only time he has encountered a firmish surface, he won his maiden and was given a rating of 84 on the back of it.  He races off 75 today, and providing he settles in the early part of the race, he should go very well.

un

Friday 25^th May

Musselburgh 6.45

2pt win Social Rhythm 8/1 generally

Well handicapped, well drawn and encountering her optimum conditions.  Social Rhythm’s chance is obvious today, yet she looks over priced by the layers.  I had her down as a 9/2 chance, so at almost double those odds this morning, she is well worth backing.

She shaped well on her return to action, and as she usually takes a run or two to find her form, it was encouraging that she shaped as well as she did.  Luke McNiff takes the ride, and is decent value for his claim.  Given usual luck in running, she should take plenty of beating today.

un

Thursday 24^th May


Goodwood
3.10 – Citrus Star 1pt win 8/1 Generally

Primaeval holds an obvious chance as he’s running off and 8lb lower mark on turf, than he is currently rated on the all-weather.  This type of horse always starts shorter than it should, and as a result I’m always happy to take him on, especially when you’ve got an equally well handicapped horse, to take him on with, that is fully effective under today’s conditions, and is more than twice the price.

Citrus Star won over course and distance, on good to firm ground in 2010, off a 6lb higher mark, and although spending most of last year in the doldrums, he showed at Lingfield last October that he still retains all of his ability, when putting up a performance which should be good enough to take today’s prize.  His comeback run this year was poor, but he’s never been at his best of soft ground, and the handicapper may have over reacted by dropping him 4lbs on the back of that effort.  If back to his best today, he will take plenty of beating.

3rd

5.30 – Rio Royale 1pt win 12/1 Bet365, 10/1 generally

Not one for the mortgage, but is certainly capable of winning today at a big price.  The first time blinkers resulted in Rio Royale, bouncing back to form when winning at Lingfield last season, and they are back on for his return to action today.  He seems best suited on turf, by a downhill track and firm ground, which he gets today.  Amanda Perrett has had a quiet start to the year, but Arch Villian won first time out for her on Tuesday, and her horses often go well at this track.

This is a race for apprentices, and in Raul Da Silva we have the best jockey in the race aboard, I would expect him to bounce Rio out and try and make all.

un

Wednesday 23^rd May

5.30 Lingfield

Whitby Jet 2pt win  - At time of text, advised as backable at 4/1 or bigger,  9/2 Generally, 5/1 Ladbrokes

This looks a weak race, with the majority of the field looking as though they are horses to take on for one reason or other.  Whitby Jet shaped very well on his return to action at Wolverhampton, and struck me as a horse that would be winning shortly.  Since then he got very tired in Heavy ground at Sandown, when running below par. 

Now back on Polytrack, with Ryan Moore in the saddle, he should take plenty of beating, given luck in running.  Being drawn in stall 9 isn’t ideal, but he’s tactically versatile, and Ryan has the option of dropping him in or sitting close to the pace.

You couldn’t describe Whitby Jet as being thrown in off his current mark, but he has been quietly progressive so far, and should only need to find a couple more pounds of improvement to score today.

2nd

Tuesday

Only bet, non runner

Monday 21^st May

Wolverhampton 5.30

Small John 2pt 8/1 Generally

Small John is something of a specialist over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton, and he shaped as though he’s no back number on his return to action this season, when looking as though he retains plenty of ability, but ultimately needing the run.  Since then he’s had a run on unsuitably soft ground, but now returned to Dunstall Park, on a decent mark, from a decent stall, he looks as though he’s one to be on today.

Providing he breaks well, I would expect him to lead or be close to the early pace and he should take plenty of catching. 

Leicester 6.20

McBirney 2pt win 7/1

McBirney looks a well handicapped horse now returning to a sound surface, having disappointed last time on soft ground.

He ran some decent races in the first part of last season off marks in the 80’s before losing his way.  He is now rated 76 and shaped really well on his comeback at Doncaster in March.  The stables runners are going really well, and he looks over priced this morning for a race that won’t take much winning.  The drying ground will be against the morning favourite Tilsworth Glenboy, and the biggest threat could come from Glass Mountain who is open to improvement but may be a bit soft.

With none of us having enough time to post our views on topical racing issues, and having received a number of emails asking for our daily analysis to be posted on the site again.  We have decided that from today, we will revert back to the original format, of putting the analysis back on the site that our clients receive on the morning of the days racing.

A good start to the week with Toto Skyllachy scoring for our betting clients, Toby's analysis below.

Monday 7^th May

4.00 Beverley

2pt win Toto Skyllachy 5/1 VC and Tote

Toto Skyllachy has a very inconsistent profile, but if building on his run at Ripon last time, then he will take all the beating today.

It was a pretty decent handicap at Ripon, he travelled best of all until the lack of a recent run told, before fading into 6^th.  That form has been franked by Memory Cloth, who ran a cracker at Newmarket on Saturday when finishing 2^nd, in a class 2 handicap

.

Toto has dropped 1lb since that run, which puts him on a mark just 1lb higher than when winning a course and distance handicap last summer.  A reproduction of that run should be good enough to see him win again today. 

The concern would be if they had a lot of rain at Beverley.  He is fully effective on good to soft, but genuine soft would be a concern.  I’ve looked at the forecast and it looks showery, but hopefully there won’t be enough rain to affect the going.