Monday 24^th September

Kempton

5.20 – Islesman 1pt win 6/1

Islesman has been a very disappointing sort over the past 12 months, but there is no doubting that he is well enough handicapped to win this, if bouncing back to form after an 89 day break.

His last victory was in a course and distance handicap last June, off a mark of 78.  He is now down to 72, and the booking of Richard Hughes would imply that he is thought to be fit enough to go close.

1st 

5.50 – Shamir 1pt win 7/1

Shamir is another horse who is below his last winning mark, and again he has plenty of course form.  Unlike Islesman though, he actually shaped quite well in a class 2 handicap last time.

Today he is back down to a class 4, where he has won 3 out of his 4 course and distance handicaps in this grade.  Again he is the best handicapped horse in the race if returning to the level of form that he was showing just over 12 months ago.

1st

Saturday 22^nd September

Newmarket

5.05 –   The Tichborne 1pt win 8/1

& Crown Choice 0.5pt win 20/1

When The Tichborne finished 3^rd, in a highly competitive Royal Ascot handicap, last year as a 3 year old, it looked as though he was a horse firmly on the up.  Since then he has declined rapidly, and his trainer has been constantly saying, that for some reason that day scarred him mentally, and his confidence has been shot since.
That all changed at Lingfield last time though, when he seemed suited to the drop back to 6 furlongs, and had a much needed confidence boosting win.  He really did seem to be a horse back on track and was pulling right away in the final furlong.  If that race is the catalyst for him to get his career back on track, then he still has loads of scope from a handicapping point of view.  He races off 73 today, and was 90 at his peak.
I can’t resist having a small wager on Crown Choice as well.  I’ve followed this horse all year, as I expected him to improve on joining the Paul Midgley stable, having joined them from Walter Swinburn.  In all honesty he has shown very little this season, and his profile would suggest that he has not been easy to keep sound.  Today he turns up on the back of another short break, having shaped slightly better over an inadequate trip at Goodwood last time.  Today he has ideal conditions, and a career low mark.
Paul Midgley doesn’t send many horses down to Newmarket – only 7 in the last 5 seasons, which could be quite significant, as Crown Choice produced his best ever performance at the course when beaten just over 2 lengths off a mark of 97 last season.  He races off just 80 today.  At a massive price he’s worth a small wager.

Catterick

5.25 – Drive Home 2pt win 5/1

Drive home was very unlucky when getting no luck in running at Musselburgh on Monday.  We had put him up at 8/1 in the morning, and he was backed as if defeat was out the question, when going off at 5/2.  Given better luck in running he could well recoup those loses today.
He’s off the same mark today, and conditions are again spot on.  This race does look more competitive than Monday’s, but he still represents value at 5/1.

1st

Ayr

5.15 – Capail Laith 1pt win 13/2

We put Capail Laith up as a bet last weekend at Chester, only for him to be declared a non runner.  The same comments apply today about him.  He’s well handicapped, and has been shaping better than his recent form figures would suggest.  Today’s going will be no problem to him, having won on heavy at Newcastle earlier in the year.

Friday 21^st September

Wolverhampton

7.00 – Roy The Boy 1pt win 6/1

Since encountering 7 furlongs on Polytrack, Roy The Boy has seemed a much more straightforward individual, and a reproduction of his effort at Wolverhampton on Monday, should see him win this evening.
I was keen to take on Willies Wonder and Right Result, as I don’t think the race that they finished 1^st and 2^nd in last time is particularly good form, and with the exception of Fast Finian, the rest of the opposition look handicapped to the hilt, or on the decline.
The Eddie Ahern/Alan Bailey combination isn’t one for maximum faith, but I expect this horse will be off to the sales next month, and I guess that they are keen on getting some solid form behind him before he goes.

Wednesday 19^th September

Yarmouth

3.50 – Anjaz 2pt win 100/30

Anjaz shaped well, in what has worked out to be a really decent handicap at Haydock last time.  She raced freely early, but still looked the most likely winner at the 2 pole, only to fail to get home over the 12 furlong trip.  Stencive and Sir Graham Wade have franked the form since, and now dropping back to 10 furlongs, she is a strong fancy to win.
Today’s race is significantly less competitive than the Haydock race, with Commitment striking me as the only potential danger.  Providing they go a reasonable gallop, I expect her to be far too good for today’s opposition.  Anything around the 3/1 mark is worth taking.

Kempton

8.45 – Kuanyo 2pt win 6/1

The last time we saw Kuanyo, the Peter Makin stable were desperately out of form, having had just 1 winner in the first 7 months of the year.  They have turned the corner since, by having had 5 winners in the 5 past weeks, and if Kuanyo returns from his 8 week break in better heart, then he should win tonight.
He won a remarkable 6 handicaps on the bounce last summer, rising from 63 to 91 in the process, today he races off a mark of 82, which is 2 lbs below his last winning mark.  He has the plum draw in stall 1, and he has a very good record on Polytrack, having won 2 out of his 3 races on the surface.
I expect Seb Sanders to make all on him, and providing he is fully tuned up, he should take all the beating.

Monday 17^th September

Musselburgh

2.10 – Drive Home 2pt win 8/1 generally

There are plenty of reasons to recommend Drive Home today, and he looks well overpriced at around 8/1 this morning.
Last time out he travelled well on the back of a 5 week break, until his stamina ran out in the final furlong.  That was over 8 furlongs, but today he is down to 7, which will suit him perfectly.  He is also 2 pounds below his last winning mark, and also has the cheek pieces back on.
On top of that he has plenty of course form, and has a nice draw in stall 2.  If he builds on that last run he should win today.

Friday 14^th September

Doncaster

1.50 – Caravan Rolls On 1pt 6/1.

Caravan Rolls On has done nothing but progress in his light career so far, and he looks likely to go on again, now stepped up to a trip that looks sure to suit.
He hasn’t been the easiest horse to keep sound, but Peter Chapple-Hyam, nominated this race as his next port of call after his victory at Newmarket last time, so presumably he has come out of that race fine, and hasn’t missed any work since.
This looks a very competitive race, but Caravan Rolls On looks as though he is potentially the biggest improver in the field, and represents fair value this morning at 6/1.

4.05 – Galician 1pt 12/1.

Duke of Firenze is by far the most likely winner of this race, being a well-bred, progressive sort, that will almost certainly make up into a group sprinter next year, but he hardly represents value, at 2/1, in the most competitive race that he has ever raced in.
Galician on the other hand looks over priced.  He didn’t appear to handle the turns of Chester last time, but now back on a straight galloping course, he could well progress again.
He was a most unlucky loser 3 runs back, when given far too much to do by Chantal Sutherland at Ascot.  He backed that up when running ok at Newmarket, when the uneven pace didn’t suit him, but even so finished just behind Amadeus Wolfe Tone, who won a hot handicap at Doncaster yesterday.
Today’s race is sure to be strongly run, and he should run better than this morning’s price would imply.

Thursday 13^th September

Epsom

4.15 – Cravat 1pt win 12/1 generally

There is a small, but select group of trainers that do well with horses that they acquire from other stables.  Ed de Giles is now in that bracket, and in Cravat he has a potentially really interesting new recruit to his team.
This time last year he won a competitive class 3 handicap at Chester off a mark of 85, and started this season off 91.  In all honesty Cravat has shown nothing this year, but this has resulted in his mark tumbling down to 72.
Ed de Giles paid 24,000 for him at the Doncaster Sales in August, and I’m pretty sure that this horse will be winning races over the coming months.  Today’s race looks weak, and conditions will be fine, so it just depends whether today is a fact finding mission, or whether they have him ready to go.  At around 12/1 it is worth taking the risk, either way he is certainly a horse to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.

Wednesday 12^th September

Doncaster

5.15 – Marine Commando 1pt win 25/1 Boyle , 20/1 generally

A wide open handicap, but I think it’s worth having a small wager on Marine Commando at a massive price.
He’s had just the 2 runs for Ruth Carr, having joined her mid-summer from the Fahey yard, and is just the sort that she excels with.
He finished 2^nd at this meeting last year in the class 3, 6 furlong handicap off a mark of 87, and turns up today off 80.  He caught my eye on his first run for Ruth Carr, when given plenty to do in a course and distance handicap in August.  Since then he has had another quiet run at Chester.
It could be that they are just trying to rekindle his enthusiasm for the game, and it may not be until next year that he turns the corner, but if the gun is put to his head today, then he is certainly weighted to win, and conditions should be ideal.

Thursday 6^th September

Haydock

4.40 – Galleon 2pt win 11/4

Last time at Catterick it was only in the final 2 furlongs that Galleon seemed to realise what racing was all about.  Up until then he had looked backward and ungainly in his previous 3 outings, and for the best part of the Catterick race.
At the 2 pole last time the penny seemed to drop, he put his head down and powered away from Cottesmore, and looks as though he could be the type to win improve massively now, and a win a really decent handicap before the seasons over.
Cottesmore has come out and franked that form, by winning impressively since, and Galleon could well have been let in lightly today off a mark of 86.
The main danger on paper looks to be the other lightly raced 3 year old Ustura, but he has sported a tongue tie on his first 2 runs, which would strongly imply that he has a major breathing problem.   This step up in trip and more competitive race will certainly put more pressure on the breathing, which makes me happy to take him on.

Kempton

7.40 – 1pt win Chevise 10/1

Chevise has shaped better than his finishing position on his last 2 starts, the first of which was on his return from a 100 day break.  He has now fallen to a really attractive mark, and if he bounces back to the form that he was showing 12 months ago then he will win this evening.
Tonight’s race doesn’t look very competitive, and with it likely to be run to suit, with the bottom 2 both likely to force the pace, he could well get his career back on track at a nice double figure price.
The reason he is only a 1 point bet, is because of the stable form.  They are still waiting on their first winner of the year, and have only had 2 winners in the past 2 seasons.  It certainly seems a long time since they won the Tote Gold Trophy with King Credo.

Tuesday 4^th September

Leicester

4.15 – Headline News 2pt win 5/1

A race I was keen to get involved in, as Bougatti is a favourite that I’m keen to take on.  He won a very weak race last time, despite looking reluctant, and has been penalised 5lbs, which puts him on a career high mark.
The one I like the look of is Headline News.  She showed a great attitude last time at Kempton, when going down by the narrowest of margins, and she looks sure to appreciate the increased stamina test today, being by Peintre Celebre out of a pretty stout dam’s line.
This is her first race in a handicap, but her opening mark doesn’t leave her needing to improve much to take this.

1st

Saturday 1^st September

Sandown

5.35 Sandown – Highland Duke 2pt win 6/1

3 of the top 4 in the market have double figure stalls, which as I alluded to last night, there is a decent bias to be had by focussing on those in single figures on the round course, on decent ground at Sandown.
The one that interests me is, Highland Duke, a late maturing 3 year old, who put up his best performance to date when winning last time, and he looks to have been let off lightly with just a 4lb rise for that success.  He travelled well through the race and idled a bit when hitting the front, I feel he was more superior to the opposition than the winning distance indicates.
Physically he is a nice sort, and he’s bred to be better than a 70 odd rated horse too.  I would expect Adam Kirby to keep him close to the early pace, and can see him taking all the beating today.

Thursday 30^th August

Hereford

4.00 – Callisto Moon 2pt win 4/1

Callisto Moon has been in top form on the flat recently, winning 3 out of his last 4 races, and returns to hurdles today off a tempting looking mark.

He is currently rated 12lbs lower than his chase mark, and looks to be the one horse in today’s race that arrives in form off a mark that looks potentially lenient.

I was disappointed with Gay Sloane’s finishing effort last time, after he travelled well into the race, and the likes of Taste The Wine, Causeway King, and The Tiddly Tadpole seem to have little in hand off their current marks.  The biggest threat will probably come from Dubawi Phantom.  Who was quite impressive when winning over course and distance 2 runs back.

Wednesday 29^th August

Wolverhampton

7.40 – Shamdarley 2pt win 6/1

Despite not winning this year, Shamdarley has shaped better than his finishing positions on several occasions.  He is now down to his last winning mark, and his effort 3 runs back, when making his Polytrack debut at Kempton, makes him of particular interest today.
He raced freely early on off a steady gallop.  When the pace quickened, he found himself too far back, and did well to finish as close as he did.  Since then both runs have been promising with the run of the race, and a troubled passaging counting against him.
It looks likely that they will go a fair gallop today, and if that happens, then I confidently expect Shamdarley to bounce back to winning form.