Wednesday 30 November 2011
2 bets today.
2.40 Uttoxeter Trafalgar 2pt 9/2 General
An initial handicap rating of 111 looks to underestimate Trafalgar. He has shaped well in his 2 novice hurdle runs so far, and with Willie Twiston Davies taking off another 7 lbs he could win this easily today. The opposition don't look great and 9/2 looks too big.
2.50 Hereford Hellfire Club 2pt 9/2 General
Was well backed on his return to action at Lingfield on his first run for over a year last time. This implied that he was not only regarded to be in decent nick, but also well handicapped off a mark of 110. As it happened he didn't jump well enough to prove whether that assessment of him was correct, but if he jumps better today he may prove that to be the case today. The Hereford fences are some of the softest in the country, and today's race won't take much winning. I'm not convinced that the drop in trip will suit Bradford Boris, and Wester Ross won a weak race last time, and has it all to do under 12 stone 3.
2.40 Uttoxeter Trafalgar 2pt 9/2 General
An initial handicap rating of 111 looks to underestimate Trafalgar. He has shaped well in his 2 novice hurdle runs so far, and with Willie Twiston Davies taking off another 7 lbs he could win this easily today. The opposition don't look great and 9/2 looks too big.
2.50 Hereford Hellfire Club 2pt 9/2 General
Was well backed on his return to action at Lingfield on his first run for over a year last time. This implied that he was not only regarded to be in decent nick, but also well handicapped off a mark of 110. As it happened he didn't jump well enough to prove whether that assessment of him was correct, but if he jumps better today he may prove that to be the case today. The Hereford fences are some of the softest in the country, and today's race won't take much winning. I'm not convinced that the drop in trip will suit Bradford Boris, and Wester Ross won a weak race last time, and has it all to do under 12 stone 3.
Friday 25 November 2011
2 Bets today
2.25 Musselburgh - Vosges 100/30 general 2pt win
Despite being only 4, looks more like a chaser than a hurdler already. He shaped well on his return to action last time, and with the drop in trip looking likely to suit, and his stable in decent form is worth backing in a weakish looking event.
2.45 Newbury - Sivola de sivola 6/1 general 2pt win
Looks well over priced at a general 6/1 this morning.
He has always been highly regarded by Tom George, and has placed him accordingly. Today he takes a drop in class, and looks very well handicapped on his form against some decent novices. He is bred to appreciate the step up in trip and is a strong fancy despite this being a competitive looking handicap on paper.
2.25 Musselburgh - Vosges 100/30 general 2pt win
Despite being only 4, looks more like a chaser than a hurdler already. He shaped well on his return to action last time, and with the drop in trip looking likely to suit, and his stable in decent form is worth backing in a weakish looking event.
2.45 Newbury - Sivola de sivola 6/1 general 2pt win
Looks well over priced at a general 6/1 this morning.
He has always been highly regarded by Tom George, and has placed him accordingly. Today he takes a drop in class, and looks very well handicapped on his form against some decent novices. He is bred to appreciate the step up in trip and is a strong fancy despite this being a competitive looking handicap on paper.
Thursday 24 November 2011
1 selection today
2.45 Newbury - Zarrafakt 2pt 6/1 General
Is an interesting runner today. He has won first time out in each of the last 3 seasons, after which he has lost his way.
First time up last year he bolted in at Folkestone, achieving a RP rating of 135 in the process, a reproduction of that performance today would see him go very well. With the stable in decent form he is worth backing at 6/1.
2.45 Newbury - Zarrafakt 2pt 6/1 General
Is an interesting runner today. He has won first time out in each of the last 3 seasons, after which he has lost his way.
First time up last year he bolted in at Folkestone, achieving a RP rating of 135 in the process, a reproduction of that performance today would see him go very well. With the stable in decent form he is worth backing at 6/1.
Saturday 19 November 2011
A decent days racing, but as far as we are concerned, only 1 decent betting opportunity.
1.45 Huntingdon - Risaala 5/1 Lads. 9/2 general 2pt
With doubts about all of the opposition today, Risaala represents a decent bet having fallen from an initial handicap mark of 124 to the 119 that she is off today. This also a drop in class for her, and with conditions ideal I would have made her more of a 5/2 shot than the 9/2 that is currently available.
1.45 Huntingdon - Risaala 5/1 Lads. 9/2 general 2pt
With doubts about all of the opposition today, Risaala represents a decent bet having fallen from an initial handicap mark of 124 to the 119 that she is off today. This also a drop in class for her, and with conditions ideal I would have made her more of a 5/2 shot than the 9/2 that is currently available.
Friday 18 November 2011
4 selections today
2.45 Ascot Piraya 2 pt 8/1 Ladbrokes
Was at his best during this time last year, and with his stable going well he could be extremely well handicapped if anywhere near his best.
3.20 Ascot Ballycarney 2pt 10/1 Ladbrokes
Progressive last year, and shaped reasonably well on his return to action last time. I want to take the favourite on, as I would do with any 10 year old off a career high mark. 10/1 looks too big .
3.55 Ascot Featherbed Lane 2pt 5/1 general
With all due respect to Anabel Murphy, I would expect this horse to improve this year for the switch to the Phillip Hobbs yard. The favourite is well handicapped on his performance at Cheltenham last week, but conditions are totally different today and he is plenty short enough at 6/4. With the exception of Pantxoa, the rest of the opposition look moderate.
4.35 Kempton Blue Deer 2pt 12/1 general
Made all to win a handicap off this mark earlier in the year for Mick Channon. Has had an "interesting" ride on all 3 runs for his current connections. Now back down in grade, off a mark we know he can win off, I would not be surprised to see him sit closer to the early pace and go very well today.
2.45 Ascot Piraya 2 pt 8/1 Ladbrokes
Was at his best during this time last year, and with his stable going well he could be extremely well handicapped if anywhere near his best.
3.20 Ascot Ballycarney 2pt 10/1 Ladbrokes
Progressive last year, and shaped reasonably well on his return to action last time. I want to take the favourite on, as I would do with any 10 year old off a career high mark. 10/1 looks too big .
3.55 Ascot Featherbed Lane 2pt 5/1 general
With all due respect to Anabel Murphy, I would expect this horse to improve this year for the switch to the Phillip Hobbs yard. The favourite is well handicapped on his performance at Cheltenham last week, but conditions are totally different today and he is plenty short enough at 6/4. With the exception of Pantxoa, the rest of the opposition look moderate.
4.35 Kempton Blue Deer 2pt 12/1 general
Made all to win a handicap off this mark earlier in the year for Mick Channon. Has had an "interesting" ride on all 3 runs for his current connections. Now back down in grade, off a mark we know he can win off, I would not be surprised to see him sit closer to the early pace and go very well today.
Tuesday 1 November 2011
Just the one bet today
3.40 Redcar The Galloping Shoe 1pt 12/1 General
Is very well handicapped on his form at the start of the summer. He finished 3rd in a decent York handicap off a mark of 82 and runs today in a moderate handicap off 70. He shaped well last time over hurdles when travelling like the best handicapped horse off his hurdle rating of 110, a reproduction off that effort returned to the flat should see him go close. 12/1 is too big a price.
3.40 Redcar The Galloping Shoe 1pt 12/1 General
Is very well handicapped on his form at the start of the summer. He finished 3rd in a decent York handicap off a mark of 82 and runs today in a moderate handicap off 70. He shaped well last time over hurdles when travelling like the best handicapped horse off his hurdle rating of 110, a reproduction off that effort returned to the flat should see him go close. 12/1 is too big a price.
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