Monday 24^th September

Kempton

5.20 – Islesman 1pt win 6/1

Islesman has been a very disappointing sort over the past 12 months, but there is no doubting that he is well enough handicapped to win this, if bouncing back to form after an 89 day break.

His last victory was in a course and distance handicap last June, off a mark of 78.  He is now down to 72, and the booking of Richard Hughes would imply that he is thought to be fit enough to go close.

1st 

5.50 – Shamir 1pt win 7/1

Shamir is another horse who is below his last winning mark, and again he has plenty of course form.  Unlike Islesman though, he actually shaped quite well in a class 2 handicap last time.

Today he is back down to a class 4, where he has won 3 out of his 4 course and distance handicaps in this grade.  Again he is the best handicapped horse in the race if returning to the level of form that he was showing just over 12 months ago.

1st

Saturday 22^nd September

Newmarket

5.05 –   The Tichborne 1pt win 8/1

& Crown Choice 0.5pt win 20/1

When The Tichborne finished 3^rd, in a highly competitive Royal Ascot handicap, last year as a 3 year old, it looked as though he was a horse firmly on the up.  Since then he has declined rapidly, and his trainer has been constantly saying, that for some reason that day scarred him mentally, and his confidence has been shot since.
That all changed at Lingfield last time though, when he seemed suited to the drop back to 6 furlongs, and had a much needed confidence boosting win.  He really did seem to be a horse back on track and was pulling right away in the final furlong.  If that race is the catalyst for him to get his career back on track, then he still has loads of scope from a handicapping point of view.  He races off 73 today, and was 90 at his peak.
I can’t resist having a small wager on Crown Choice as well.  I’ve followed this horse all year, as I expected him to improve on joining the Paul Midgley stable, having joined them from Walter Swinburn.  In all honesty he has shown very little this season, and his profile would suggest that he has not been easy to keep sound.  Today he turns up on the back of another short break, having shaped slightly better over an inadequate trip at Goodwood last time.  Today he has ideal conditions, and a career low mark.
Paul Midgley doesn’t send many horses down to Newmarket – only 7 in the last 5 seasons, which could be quite significant, as Crown Choice produced his best ever performance at the course when beaten just over 2 lengths off a mark of 97 last season.  He races off just 80 today.  At a massive price he’s worth a small wager.

Catterick

5.25 – Drive Home 2pt win 5/1

Drive home was very unlucky when getting no luck in running at Musselburgh on Monday.  We had put him up at 8/1 in the morning, and he was backed as if defeat was out the question, when going off at 5/2.  Given better luck in running he could well recoup those loses today.
He’s off the same mark today, and conditions are again spot on.  This race does look more competitive than Monday’s, but he still represents value at 5/1.

1st

Ayr

5.15 – Capail Laith 1pt win 13/2

We put Capail Laith up as a bet last weekend at Chester, only for him to be declared a non runner.  The same comments apply today about him.  He’s well handicapped, and has been shaping better than his recent form figures would suggest.  Today’s going will be no problem to him, having won on heavy at Newcastle earlier in the year.

Friday 21^st September

Wolverhampton

7.00 – Roy The Boy 1pt win 6/1

Since encountering 7 furlongs on Polytrack, Roy The Boy has seemed a much more straightforward individual, and a reproduction of his effort at Wolverhampton on Monday, should see him win this evening.
I was keen to take on Willies Wonder and Right Result, as I don’t think the race that they finished 1^st and 2^nd in last time is particularly good form, and with the exception of Fast Finian, the rest of the opposition look handicapped to the hilt, or on the decline.
The Eddie Ahern/Alan Bailey combination isn’t one for maximum faith, but I expect this horse will be off to the sales next month, and I guess that they are keen on getting some solid form behind him before he goes.

Wednesday 19^th September

Yarmouth

3.50 – Anjaz 2pt win 100/30

Anjaz shaped well, in what has worked out to be a really decent handicap at Haydock last time.  She raced freely early, but still looked the most likely winner at the 2 pole, only to fail to get home over the 12 furlong trip.  Stencive and Sir Graham Wade have franked the form since, and now dropping back to 10 furlongs, she is a strong fancy to win.
Today’s race is significantly less competitive than the Haydock race, with Commitment striking me as the only potential danger.  Providing they go a reasonable gallop, I expect her to be far too good for today’s opposition.  Anything around the 3/1 mark is worth taking.

Kempton

8.45 – Kuanyo 2pt win 6/1

The last time we saw Kuanyo, the Peter Makin stable were desperately out of form, having had just 1 winner in the first 7 months of the year.  They have turned the corner since, by having had 5 winners in the 5 past weeks, and if Kuanyo returns from his 8 week break in better heart, then he should win tonight.
He won a remarkable 6 handicaps on the bounce last summer, rising from 63 to 91 in the process, today he races off a mark of 82, which is 2 lbs below his last winning mark.  He has the plum draw in stall 1, and he has a very good record on Polytrack, having won 2 out of his 3 races on the surface.
I expect Seb Sanders to make all on him, and providing he is fully tuned up, he should take all the beating.

Monday 17^th September

Musselburgh

2.10 – Drive Home 2pt win 8/1 generally

There are plenty of reasons to recommend Drive Home today, and he looks well overpriced at around 8/1 this morning.
Last time out he travelled well on the back of a 5 week break, until his stamina ran out in the final furlong.  That was over 8 furlongs, but today he is down to 7, which will suit him perfectly.  He is also 2 pounds below his last winning mark, and also has the cheek pieces back on.
On top of that he has plenty of course form, and has a nice draw in stall 2.  If he builds on that last run he should win today.

Friday 14^th September

Doncaster

1.50 – Caravan Rolls On 1pt 6/1.

Caravan Rolls On has done nothing but progress in his light career so far, and he looks likely to go on again, now stepped up to a trip that looks sure to suit.
He hasn’t been the easiest horse to keep sound, but Peter Chapple-Hyam, nominated this race as his next port of call after his victory at Newmarket last time, so presumably he has come out of that race fine, and hasn’t missed any work since.
This looks a very competitive race, but Caravan Rolls On looks as though he is potentially the biggest improver in the field, and represents fair value this morning at 6/1.

4.05 – Galician 1pt 12/1.

Duke of Firenze is by far the most likely winner of this race, being a well-bred, progressive sort, that will almost certainly make up into a group sprinter next year, but he hardly represents value, at 2/1, in the most competitive race that he has ever raced in.
Galician on the other hand looks over priced.  He didn’t appear to handle the turns of Chester last time, but now back on a straight galloping course, he could well progress again.
He was a most unlucky loser 3 runs back, when given far too much to do by Chantal Sutherland at Ascot.  He backed that up when running ok at Newmarket, when the uneven pace didn’t suit him, but even so finished just behind Amadeus Wolfe Tone, who won a hot handicap at Doncaster yesterday.
Today’s race is sure to be strongly run, and he should run better than this morning’s price would imply.

Thursday 13^th September

Epsom

4.15 – Cravat 1pt win 12/1 generally

There is a small, but select group of trainers that do well with horses that they acquire from other stables.  Ed de Giles is now in that bracket, and in Cravat he has a potentially really interesting new recruit to his team.
This time last year he won a competitive class 3 handicap at Chester off a mark of 85, and started this season off 91.  In all honesty Cravat has shown nothing this year, but this has resulted in his mark tumbling down to 72.
Ed de Giles paid 24,000 for him at the Doncaster Sales in August, and I’m pretty sure that this horse will be winning races over the coming months.  Today’s race looks weak, and conditions will be fine, so it just depends whether today is a fact finding mission, or whether they have him ready to go.  At around 12/1 it is worth taking the risk, either way he is certainly a horse to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.

Wednesday 12^th September

Doncaster

5.15 – Marine Commando 1pt win 25/1 Boyle , 20/1 generally

A wide open handicap, but I think it’s worth having a small wager on Marine Commando at a massive price.
He’s had just the 2 runs for Ruth Carr, having joined her mid-summer from the Fahey yard, and is just the sort that she excels with.
He finished 2^nd at this meeting last year in the class 3, 6 furlong handicap off a mark of 87, and turns up today off 80.  He caught my eye on his first run for Ruth Carr, when given plenty to do in a course and distance handicap in August.  Since then he has had another quiet run at Chester.
It could be that they are just trying to rekindle his enthusiasm for the game, and it may not be until next year that he turns the corner, but if the gun is put to his head today, then he is certainly weighted to win, and conditions should be ideal.

Thursday 6^th September

Haydock

4.40 – Galleon 2pt win 11/4

Last time at Catterick it was only in the final 2 furlongs that Galleon seemed to realise what racing was all about.  Up until then he had looked backward and ungainly in his previous 3 outings, and for the best part of the Catterick race.
At the 2 pole last time the penny seemed to drop, he put his head down and powered away from Cottesmore, and looks as though he could be the type to win improve massively now, and a win a really decent handicap before the seasons over.
Cottesmore has come out and franked that form, by winning impressively since, and Galleon could well have been let in lightly today off a mark of 86.
The main danger on paper looks to be the other lightly raced 3 year old Ustura, but he has sported a tongue tie on his first 2 runs, which would strongly imply that he has a major breathing problem.   This step up in trip and more competitive race will certainly put more pressure on the breathing, which makes me happy to take him on.

Kempton

7.40 – 1pt win Chevise 10/1

Chevise has shaped better than his finishing position on his last 2 starts, the first of which was on his return from a 100 day break.  He has now fallen to a really attractive mark, and if he bounces back to the form that he was showing 12 months ago then he will win this evening.
Tonight’s race doesn’t look very competitive, and with it likely to be run to suit, with the bottom 2 both likely to force the pace, he could well get his career back on track at a nice double figure price.
The reason he is only a 1 point bet, is because of the stable form.  They are still waiting on their first winner of the year, and have only had 2 winners in the past 2 seasons.  It certainly seems a long time since they won the Tote Gold Trophy with King Credo.

Tuesday 4^th September

Leicester

4.15 – Headline News 2pt win 5/1

A race I was keen to get involved in, as Bougatti is a favourite that I’m keen to take on.  He won a very weak race last time, despite looking reluctant, and has been penalised 5lbs, which puts him on a career high mark.
The one I like the look of is Headline News.  She showed a great attitude last time at Kempton, when going down by the narrowest of margins, and she looks sure to appreciate the increased stamina test today, being by Peintre Celebre out of a pretty stout dam’s line.
This is her first race in a handicap, but her opening mark doesn’t leave her needing to improve much to take this.

1st

Saturday 1^st September

Sandown

5.35 Sandown – Highland Duke 2pt win 6/1

3 of the top 4 in the market have double figure stalls, which as I alluded to last night, there is a decent bias to be had by focussing on those in single figures on the round course, on decent ground at Sandown.
The one that interests me is, Highland Duke, a late maturing 3 year old, who put up his best performance to date when winning last time, and he looks to have been let off lightly with just a 4lb rise for that success.  He travelled well through the race and idled a bit when hitting the front, I feel he was more superior to the opposition than the winning distance indicates.
Physically he is a nice sort, and he’s bred to be better than a 70 odd rated horse too.  I would expect Adam Kirby to keep him close to the early pace, and can see him taking all the beating today.

Thursday 30^th August

Hereford

4.00 – Callisto Moon 2pt win 4/1

Callisto Moon has been in top form on the flat recently, winning 3 out of his last 4 races, and returns to hurdles today off a tempting looking mark.

He is currently rated 12lbs lower than his chase mark, and looks to be the one horse in today’s race that arrives in form off a mark that looks potentially lenient.

I was disappointed with Gay Sloane’s finishing effort last time, after he travelled well into the race, and the likes of Taste The Wine, Causeway King, and The Tiddly Tadpole seem to have little in hand off their current marks.  The biggest threat will probably come from Dubawi Phantom.  Who was quite impressive when winning over course and distance 2 runs back.

Wednesday 29^th August

Wolverhampton

7.40 – Shamdarley 2pt win 6/1

Despite not winning this year, Shamdarley has shaped better than his finishing positions on several occasions.  He is now down to his last winning mark, and his effort 3 runs back, when making his Polytrack debut at Kempton, makes him of particular interest today.
He raced freely early on off a steady gallop.  When the pace quickened, he found himself too far back, and did well to finish as close as he did.  Since then both runs have been promising with the run of the race, and a troubled passaging counting against him.
It looks likely that they will go a fair gallop today, and if that happens, then I confidently expect Shamdarley to bounce back to winning form.

Tuesday 28th August
Epsom
4.30 – Novirak 2pt win 9/2

Novirak shaped well last time over 10 furlongs at Doncaster, when looking as though he could be open to plenty of improvement when stepped up to 12 furlongs.
He gets the increased stamina test today, and should take all the beating in what looks a pretty weak handicap.  The favourite, Twelve Strings hasn’t looked particularly willing on his last 2 starts, and Enery has only shown his form on the all-weather so far.  Seven Veils has shown temperament too, so the biggest danger will probably come from Mount Abora, who bounced back to form last time, and still has scope from a handicapping perspective.  The negative with Mount Abora is that she is ridden by the inexperienced Charlotte Jenner, and this is not an easy course for a young jockey to ride around.

2nd

Monday 27^th August

Ripon

3.35 Toto Skyllachy 2pt win 7/2

Despite being 4lbs above his last winning mark, Toto Skyllachy’s effort, when finishing 2^nd at Carlisle, is probably the best piece of recent form in the race.  He followed that up with 2 below par efforts, before bouncing back to form at Ayr last time, when he probably overdid things from the front.

It looks as though there won’t be much competition today for the lead, and as long as Daniel Tudhope keeps a little in reserve, then he should take all the beating.

Of the opposition the favourite finds winning hard, Mirrored has been put up 9lbs for winning last time in a race that worked out perfectly for him, and the rest all have something to prove having run poorly last time out.

3rd

Saturday 25^th August

York

3.40 – Harrison’s Cave 1pt win 20/1

If the forecast rain arrives, then there could be a number of the principles that not only have doubts about their ability to handle the ground, but will have stamina doubts too.

One horse that won’t have those question marks is Harrison’s Cave.  He found the extreme test of 19 furlongs in soft ground too much in the Chester Cup, but since then he has proved his well-being when running well at Ascot in the Duke of Edinburgh handicap, when finishing 3^rd behind Camborne.  He just lacked the pace over 12 furlongs on decent ground that day, but 14 furlongs with cut, should prove right up his street.

This is an extremely competitive race, but Harrison’s Cave has shaped as though there could be a bigger performance in him than he has produced so far.  Hopefully it will be tomorrow.

Friday 24^th August

York

3.40 – Pearl Secret 2pt win 5/1

If Pearl Secret is as good as I think he is, then he will take all the beating today.  Visually I have been very impressed with him so far, and I think that today he will prove himself to be top of the tree in the sprint division.  Conditions look ideal, and there are no better trainers of sprinters than his handler David Barron. 

My only concern about him today is if he gets trapped on the stands side rail.  I expect the runners to come near side, so we don’t need Spencer riding him with too much restraint.  The ideal scenario will be for him to track Tangerine Trees for 4 furlongs and take it up inside the last, if that plan is executed, then I expect Pearl Secret to win today.  Any additional rain won’t inconvenience us, but it will be against most of the opposition. 

FFos Las

4.30 – Fair Along 1pt win 11/2

Fair Along has put up his best 2 efforts, first time out over the last 2 seasons.  If he does that again today, then he is handicapped to win.   He finished third in last season’s Hennessy off a mark of 142, and turns up today against weaker opposition off a mark of 135.  If Phillip Hobbs has him in decent form today, then he must go close.

Hamilton

6.35 – Jeannie Galloway 1pt win 7/1

I put Jeannie Galloway up a couple of weeks ago, and she was well backed prior to being pulled out.  Today’s race looks more competitive, but conditions are ideal.  If the visor sparks her back to life then she is handicapped to win, on her first start for the Keith Dalgleish yard.

Thursday 23^rd August

York

3.05 – Indian Jack 1pt win 14/1

Physically Indian Jack looked as though he would improve from 3 to 4.  This opinion of him looked to be accurate, when he shaped with a fair degree of promise on his first outing of the year.  Since then things haven’t gone his way, but today’s conditions look perfect and it’s not inconceivable that he can win this at a big price.

I think a strongly run mile on a galloping track and decent ground is what he wants, and providing he breaks better than he did last time, then I can see him putting up a career best effort today.  There are plenty of dangers but he is worth a small investment at around 14/1.

3rd

FFos Las

4.55 – West With The Wind 2pt win 3/1

West with the Wind has won this race for the past 2 years, and he looks as though he has been primed to win it again.

I expect him to outclass today’s opposition providing Paul Moloney doesn’t go off too hard too early, if that’s the case, then I don’t expect him to see another rival.  He is best fresh so the fact that he is coming off a 63 day break is a positive.   

Wednesday 22^nd August

Newton Abbott

6.00 – Gay Sloane 1pt win 8/1 Lads, 7/1 generally

Gay Sloane fits the profile of the type of horse that Richard Woollacott has excelled with this year – potentially well handicapped on his old form, and joining him from an out of form yard.

It is quite possible that the horse is a shadow of his former self, and he could well bomb out as he hasn’t shown any form for 3 years, but if his inform handler has got back to anywhere near his best then he will go close.

Gay Sloane also holds an entry for a decent handicap hurdle at Cartmel on Saturday, so it’s possible that they are looking to run up a quick sequence, like they did with Allerford Jack last month.

He’s certainly not one for the mortgage, but there are enough positives to recommend a small bet on him at a fair price.

3rd

Sunday 19^th August

Southwell

2.00 – Chandlers Cross 2pt win

A reproduction of Chandlers Cross’s last effort, when runner up behind of Allerford Jack, will see him win today.

He was well backed throughout the day last time, and was clearly expected to put up an improved effort on his debut under rules for David Rees.  Allerford Jack has won twice since, and is now rated 21lbs higher.

Chandlers Cross is just 9lbs higher today so still looks well treated, having been beaten by just over a length at Worcester.  Today’s opposition look poor and Chandlers Cross looks well overpriced this morning.

2nd

Saturday 18^th August

Newbury

3.40 – Rakaan 1pt win 8/1 Fred 7/1 Lads,Victor, Paddy

Rakaan’s first three runs of the season were on unsuitably soft ground, this resulted in him running poorly, and he dropped 8lbs in the handicap as a result.  Last time at Goodwood was the first time he has encountered a decent surface this year, and he would have gone close if Spencer hadn’t given him far too much to do.

Off the same mark today he looks sure to go well, in what is admittedly a very competitive race.  Frankie takes over in the saddle.

Friday 17^th August

Kempton

8.25 – 2pt win Loving Spirit 13/2

Loving Spirit’s profile would suggest that he isn’t the soundest of horses, but he is certainly capable of winning off his current handicap mark if James Toller has him in top form today.

On his return to action over course and distance in May, I think he would have won, if his run hadn’t been stopped at a crucial time.  Since then he has been outclassed in a listed race at Windsor, and unsuited by the step back in trip at Yarmouth. 

He is now 1lb lower than his first run of the season, and assuming he gets better luck in running, then he will take plenty of beating this evening.

2nd

Kempton

8.05 – Intransingent 2pt win 11/4

Like his half-brother, Border Music, Intransingent seems to be a better horse on the all-weather, than he is on turf.  His 2 runs on Polytrack so far have seen him finish 1^st, and 2^nd. 

He would probably have won last time over course and distance, if he hadn’t been  undone by the steady early gallop, and conceded first run to the winner.

Ghost Train should ensure a truer gallop today, and off the same mark as last time, he should take all the beating. 

1st 

A great day yesterday, with both selections winning.  I hope a few of you have best odds guaranteed with your bookmaker, as Wannabee King started at 20/1.

Tuesday 14^th August

Ayr

3.20 Wannabe king 1pt win 16/1.

This is one of those bets that is just as likely to bomb, as it is to run well, but at 16/1 that’s certainly built into the price.

Wannabe king shaped with promise on his first 2 runs of the season, but was below par when returning from a 3 month break last time.  There are valid excuses for that effort though.  He raced without his usual headgear and was ridden in a manner which wasn’t going to see him to best effect.

Now refitted with the visor, and assuming he is ridden with more restraint than last time, he could well pop up today at a big price.  On his best form, he would be the best handicapped in the race, conditions look spot on and he is ridden by 7lb claimer, Jordan Nason, who has won on 3 of his 13 rides so far this season, and won on his only ride at Ayr.

Geoff Harker is a wily trainer, and it wouldn’t surprise me, if he has plotted the horse up for today.  If that’s the case then I would expect to see plenty of late money for him.

1st

3.50 Penang Pegasus 2pt win 7/2

A very weak race, where a reproduction of Penang Pegasus’s effort at Redcar back in May, should be good enough to take this.  He’s been unsuited by the drop back to 8 furlongs the last twice, but showed a decent attitude when staying on well at Thirsk last time. 

After 6 career starts he has plenty of scope to improve, and I’m surprised to see him as big as 7/2 this morning.  I would expect him to start closer to 2/1.

1st

Saturday 11^th August

Newmarket

3.00 – Mississippi 1pt win 12/1

Both Mississippi’s pedigree, and the visual impression that he has created, strongly suggest that the step back to 7 furlongs will bring about some improvement today.  His sire is very much a speed influence, and his half-brother, Maarek, is a 110 rated 6 furlong horse.

2 runs ago at Doncaster, Mississippi looked the likely winner throughout the race, on his handicap debut, when travelling better than anything until the 2 pole, only for him to tire running into the final furlong.  Last time at Royal Ascot, he was dropped in, and looked as though he was ridden to get the trip, but again failed to do so.

Now dropped back in trip, I would expect him to race closer to the early pace, and he certainly has the potential of defying his current mark of 88.  This is a very competitive race, but 12/1 looks a fair price.

Redcar

3.45 – Alakhan 1pt 16/1 Coral, 14/1 generally

Alakhan has been disappointing so far this season, but there are several factors that I feel that this horse needs to show his best form, today is the first time that he gets them this year.

I think the horse is best when fresh, needs a strongly run race over a mile, and a sound surface.

With Cono Zur, and Sir Trevor in the line-up, it should be strongly run, and both ground and trip are fine, he also arrives on the back of a 5 week break.

Alakhan caught my eye when running in a hot Newmarket handicap last year, when impressing with how he travelled through the race, but was badly drawn and did well to finish as close as he did.  If Ian Williams has him in the same form today, then he will go very close, and will make this morning’s odds look very generous.

Thursday 9^th August

Haydock

3.40 – Barkston Ash 2pt win 7/2

The top three in the market, Namwahjobo, Coolminx, and Jack Luey all find it hard to win, so I’m happy to take them on.  Barkston Ash, bounced back to form when winning at Hamilton earlier in the year, and was better than his finishing position when staying on well from a poor position at York last time.  He’s reunited with 7lb claimer Jason Hart today, and I expect him to keep him close to the early pace, before finding too much against some poor/reluctant opposition.

Sandown

7.50 – Cactus Valley 2pt win 4/1

Cactus Valley showed plenty of promise in his 3 maiden runs, and was well fancied on his handicap debut last time.  The slow early pace didn’t suit him at all, and he used up too much energy by fighting his jockey in the first part of the race.  The drop back in trip should suit this evening, and Cactus Valley should take this before going onto better things.

The opposition are largely an exposed bunch, with the exception of the other 2 three year olds.  It’s disconcerting though, that Top Billings connections are reaching for the headgear already for him, after just 3 career starts.  This leaves Keepax as the danger, but he was well positioned in a messy race last time, and I expect Cactus Valley to prove too strong for him today.

 1st

8.20 – Uncle Fred 2pt win 11/2

I strongly fancied him at Windsor last time, but his chance was ruined when Kens Girl broke down and took him out the race.  Although his best form has been at Windsor, he does have form at Sandown, and my opinion of him hasn’t changed – he’s a well handicapped horse that has been shaping better than his early season efforts would imply.  This evening’s race doesn’t look great, and if back to his best, then he should go very close.  

Monday 6^th August

Ripon

3.45 – Kelly’s Eye 2pt win 7/2

On his first run back with former trainer, David Brown, Kelly’s Eye shaped very well at York last time.  2 seasons ago, Kelly’s Eye won 3 course and distance handicaps on the trot, with the last one being off a mark of 94.

Since then he has lost his way under the care of 2 other trainers, but the evidence of his last run, is that David Brown has got him back on track, and now returned to his favoured course, off a mark of 74, he should win if building on that last effort.

Carlisle

8.05 – Icy Blue 2pt win 5/1 Ladbrokes and Paddy Power

Icy Blue hit form at this time last year when winning off a mark 1lb higher than he races off today.  He has shaped better than the result would imply on his last 2 runs.  On both occasions he was slowly away and met interference in running.  The smaller field should help on that front today, and he is certainly capable of winning today with a clear run through.

Friday 3^rd August

Bangor

4.30 – First In The Queue 2pt win 7/2

First In The Queue, is a highly strung individual that is always likely to be best when fresh.  He returns  from a 101 day break today, and a reproduction of his effort last December at Cheltenham, should be good enough to win.  He would have won that day, if he hadn’t walk through the last, and off the same mark today, holds decent from claims, now encountering his favoured sound surface for the first time since then.

1st

Thursday 2^nd August

Epsom

5.50 – Layline 1pt win 8/1

Certain trainers look to exploit the loop hole, of winning apprentice handicaps – where no penalty is giving for winning, with potentially well handicapped horses, where the aim is to try and run a quick sequence of victories, before the handicapper gets hold of you.  Gay Kelleway, is a trainer in that bracket.

Layline has always been seen as an all-weather specialist, but the handicapper could have taken a massive chance by dropping him 9lbs on the back of his last turf run.  The winner won easily that day, but Layline travelled with enthusiasm, and was only 6 lengths behind the 2^nd placed horse at the finish.  That race was much more competitive that today’s, in fact this is the lowest grade of race that Layline has contested in his career.

The most interesting fact about today is that Layline has 2 further entries later in the week, so I would guess that Gay Kelleway sees today as a springboard for a winning run.  She has booked Darren Egan, who is a very good apprentice, and Layline showed that he handled the course when running here as a 2 year old.

With this type of horse, it is always possible that I’ve read the situation completely wrong, and Layline could bomb out, but if this is a well worked plan by the Kelleway yard, then I would expect him to be well backed, and if on song should be too well handicapped for the opposition.

Galway

4.50 – Princeton Plains 1pt win 12/1

Princeton plains ran a cracker in the race last year, when finishing 5^th, just 2 days after winning the Novice hurdle on the opening day of the festival.  This was on decent ground, but he is certainly a better horse with some cut.

He’s a horse that has the rare quality of being able to find a turn of speed out the soft ground, off a strong pace.  These type of horses are always worth having on your side, in top end handicaps.  He’s been campaigned with this race in mind, rather than it being an afterthought like last year, and showed his wellbeing when a well backed winner on the flat last time.  He could go very close today in what is an extremely competitive handicap.

Tuesday 31^st July

Beverley

3.30 – Space War 2pt win 16/1 generally

The last time Space War encountered his favoured ground – fast side of good, he finished 2^nd, beaten a head off a mark of 84.  Since then he has struggled on soft ground, which he simply doesn’t act on.

With the ground firm at Beverley today, Space War could well bounce back to form, and if he does then he is an exceptionally well handicapped horse off a mark off 75.  A strongly run 8 furlongs on a stiff track is ideal, and if Mick Easterby has him in top form today, then he will take plenty of beating.

Goodwood

2.00 – Las Verglas Star 2pt win 6/1 generally

Despite having had a fair amount of racing, Las Verglas Star seems to still be improving.  Last time at Ascot, he was very unlucky not to win, and off the same mark today, he stands a decent chance of going one better.

A low draw on the round course at Goodwood is a massive advantage, and he showed that he handled the course, when running well at this meeting last year, in the 3 year old handicap over course and distance.  Despite plenty of runners, this doesn’t seem to be the most competitive of races, and providing he gets a decent run through, then Las Verglas Star should go close today.

2nd

5.25 – Hamoody  1pt win 14/1

An exceptionally competitive race, but over the years I’ve done well backing horses from the Dandy Nicholls yard, that look to have been laid out for this meeting.

Hamoody won this 2 years ago, off a 5lb higher mark, and he looks to have been brought along steadily so far this season, with probably this race in mind.  Rain would be a concern as he certainly wouldn’t want the ground to be any softer than good, but providing the going is no softer than good, then he could well go close.

Monday 30^th July

Uttoxeter

7.50 – Allerford Jack 2pt win 11/4

I’m surprised to see Allerford Jack as big as 11/4 this morning.  A reproduction of last week’s effort will be good enough for him to win again, and although he won last week, I felt he idled once hitting the front, and he was in fact far superior to the opposition than the winning distance implied.

You are always taking a risk, when a horse is running just 5 days after his last effort, but the fact that he idled, tells me that he was holding a little bit back for himself, so he may not have had as hard a race as it looked.

Delgany Gunner is solid, but has nothing in hand from the handicapper, whilst Whistling Senator, had a crashing fall last time, which must  have dented his confidence, so again I’m happy to take him on.

1st

Saturday 28th July

Newcastle

3.05 – Dubawi Sound 2pt 5/1 generally

Dubawi Sound is a horse that still has stacks of potential, and it is certainly too soon to be writing him off after a couple of below par efforts.

His first race of the season was back in April, when he was well fancied for The Spring Mile at Newbury.  This was the first time that he had encountered soft ground, which clearly didn’t suit, and the way he stopped that day suggested that he may have had a breathing problem as well.  Since then he has been moved from Roger Varian to David Brown, and he is now fitted for a tongue tie for the first time.

Although a competitive race, I feel that Dubawi Sound could well be a cut above today’s opposition, and I expect him to take this before going onto better things.

1st

Ascot

3.55 – Greylami 2pt win 10/1

Greylami always takes a couple of runs to reach his peak, so the fact that he has shown very little so far this year isn’t a major concern.

Today he races in a much weaker race than he usually contests, and he has his optimum conditions on turf, for the first time in a long time.  He won a course and distance handicap off a mark of 90 in 2010, and turns up today off a mark of 82.  If Robert Mills has him in top form, he should win.  At a double figure price this morning, he represents excellent value.

Thursday 26^th July

Doncaster

6.45 – Song Of Parkes 2pt win 7/1

Song Of Parkes seems best suited to 6 furlongs on a flat, straight course, and quick ground.  Today she gets those conditions for the first time this year.

The last time she had her optimum conditions she won cosily off a mark of 65, and although she isn’t the most consistent, if putting her best foot forward today, then she is more than capable of winning of her current mark of 69. 

2nd

Epsom

7.40 – Rondeau 1pt each way 12/1

There are better handicapped horses on paper than Rondeau today, but he is a horse that seems to save his best for this course and distance, and unlike last time, today’s race looks sure to be run to suit, with 4 or 5 potential front runners in the line-up.

Last time at Epsom, horses ridden prominently, dominated all evening on ground that was pretty dead, and as a result it proved hard to make ground up from the back.  Rondeau did finish best of all in his race though, and showed enough to think that he can still go close, off his current mark.

I expect him to be settled well back early, but providing the leaders do go off too hard, it could well set the race up for Rondeau.  With his stable in decent heart, he is worth chancing at a big price this morning.  

Wednesday

25^th July

Worcester

1.50 – Allerford Jack 2pt win Tote 11/2 and Fred, 5/1 generally

Allerford Jack, looks well handicapped on both his Point to Point form, and his hurdling form, now running in a handicap chase for the first time.  He has been in decent form in points, winning his last two, and assuming Andrew Glassonbury gets him into a decent jumping rhythm early, then he looks to a hold very strong claims against a modest looking bunch.

1st 

Tuesday 24^th July

Southwell- National Hunt

3.10 – The Sliotar 2pt win 6/1 generally

Shaped as though still needing the run, on his 2^nd run back from a lengthy absence last time, but travelled through the race as though he is in fair form, and ahead of his mark.

The fact that his top yard are still persevering with him at the age of 11, would imply that he retains his enthusiasm and they feel he is still capable of winning races.  I doubt he retains all of his ability, but he should still be good enough off a mark of 118, to take this.

2nd

4.10 – Amazing King 2pt win 11/2 generally

Has been in top form on the flat recently, and returns to hurdles off a very low mark.  I think the key to this horse is a tight track on decent going, today he has that, and if he can’t win today, then I doubt that he will win over hurdles again.

Won on his only previous visit to the course in a Novice Chase, and Adam Nichol looks decent value for his 7lb claim.

Monday 23^rd July

Southwell

2.10 – Dark Falcon 2pt 9/2 generally

Dark Falcon stopped quickly at Leicester last time, but the fact that he has been off for 7 weeks since that run, would imply that he had a minor problem that day.  Assuming that has been addressed, and he arrives in top form, then he should go very close today.

He showed his liking for the Fibresand surface, when winning at Southwell last December, he then shaped as if needing the run on his return to action in May, but followed that up with an improved effort when finishing 4^th at Lingfield when he just lacked the pace on the quicker Polytrack surface.

Dark Falcon strikes me as the type of horse that could develop into a Southwell specialist, as he is a grinder that can’t quicken, but appears as the type that can maintain his tempo off a strong gallop.

Windsor

8.40 – Uncle Fred 2pt win 8/1 generally

I’m surprised to see Uncle Fred as big as 8/1 this morning, as he looks extremely well handicapped and has his optimum conditions today.

Last summer he won a course and distance handicap off a mark of 77, today he’s down to 74, and also down to a class 5 for the first time in a long time.  He’s well drawn in stall 1, but will need a little luck, as he is a hold up horse that will be reliant on the leaders going off hard, and will need the gaps to open at the right time.  With Ken’s Girl, Blue Deer, and Calypso Magic in the line-up, there is every chance of that happening.

Saturday 21^st July

Ascot

3.55 – Lightening Cloud 2pt win 10/1

Lightening Cloud put up a cracking effort last time in The Wokingham at Royal Ascot, just lacking the finishing speed of the specialist sprinters over the 6 furlong trip.  Now back up to 7 furlongs and with the ground coming in his favour, everything looks in place for a massive run tomorrow.

You always need a bit of luck in these big field handicaps, but I’m sure that Lightening Cloud is the best handicapped horse in the race, and is still open to plenty of improvement having just had 12 career starts.  I expect this horse to be very well backed tomorrow, hence me putting the bet up this evening.

Market Rasen

2.50 – Red Inca 1pt win 20/1

Travelled like a horse ahead of his mark when tiring late on in a decent juvenile handicap at Sandown in April.  Been in decent form on the flat since, and interesting that connections, who have done really well with their handicap hurdlers in recent years, have targeted this race.

The less emphasis on stamina will suit, and off a fly weight, with a decent apprentice booked, he holds a better chance than his 20/1 would imply.

3.25 – I have dreamed 1pt win 10/1

Looks well handicapped on his Hunter Chase form, now reverting to a handicap for the first time since October 2010.  He finished 3^rd off a mark of 137 that day, but has seemed an improved horse since hunting, which seems to have taught him to relax, and has resulted in him getting further in the process.

On top of that he is now with the Lawney Hill, who has improved plenty of horses from other yards over the past few seasons, and if she has worked her magic on this one, then he could go really well in a very competitive handicap.

1st

Those of you that have been on the betting service for a while, will be aware that I had intended having 2 Tipsters working for us, to cover the flat season this Summer.  Having trialled a number of people earlier in the year, I couldn't find anyone of the calibre that I wanted, so I decided to stick with just Toby for the flat, and have David cover the top end of National Hunt.

One of the reasons I was looking for 2 tipsters for the turf, was that when one tipster was out of form, the other tipster would hopefully be in form, which would reduce the length of a losing run.  This didn't materialise, but I have continued to trial other tipsters over the last few months.  For whatever reason, every tipster that I have trialled over a 3 month period, hasn't managed to produce a profit, with the exception of one guy, who I will come on to shortly.

This losing tipster phenomenon, hasn't just been restricted to people that I have been trialling.  I've been reliably informed that the 2 best known tipsters in the industry, Tom Segal, in the Racing Post, and Hugh Taylor, from At The Races, have had a torrid time of things too.  Hugh Taylor has had only 1 winner from his last 72 bets, whilst Tom Segal hasn't had a winning month since January! Everyone seems to be blaming the weather and the going, but surely everyone can't be having losing runs?

Well no, actually they are not.  Toby introduced me to a guy called Aidan Fox, who used to work for another tipping service a few years ago, prior to going it alone as a Professional Punter.  Aidan doesn't touch the flat, as he focuses solely on National Hunt racing.  His record since I started trialling him has been good, and the types of bets he looks for are similar to Toby's.  He focuses on the handicaps, and very rarely gets involved in novice races.  He's not as keen as Toby to write a detailed analysis behind the bet, but has agreed to write a short script about his selections.

With there being a decent National Hunt card at Market Rasen this weekend, I thought it would be a good time to add Aidan to the team.  His inclusion will not cost you anything extra per month, and it is up to you whether you back his selections, or like I've done, monitor them for a few weeks.

Personally I'm happy with his work, and will be including his selections in our betting record from now on.  I will start sending his bets out in the usual manner, starting from tomorrow morning.

Friday 20^th July

Newmarket

7.50 – Rivas Rhapsody 2pt win 4/1 generally, 9/2 Hills

Normally if a daughter of Hawk Wing had finished 2^nd, 3 times on the trot, I would be looking to take her on, as this would be a sign in common with most Hawk Wing’s, that they are not the most willing under pressure.  That is certainly not the case with Rivas Rhapsody though.

Last time at Kempton, she did absolutely nothing wrong, when going down by half a length, having conceded first run to the winner, Athenian.  Athenian has franked that form since by winning again, and is now rated 10lbs higher than she was at Kempton.

Rivas Rhapsody is just 3lbs higher today, so has obvious claims from a handicapping perspective, and I feel that the stiffer Newmarket course will suit her better today.  Having had just the 6 runs in her career, Rivas is still open to plenty of improvement, and although today’s race looks competitive, nothing else has her potential to improve.  4/1 looks a fair price.

2nd

Thursday 19^th July

Doncaster

8.30 William Haigh 2pt win 8/1 generally

The big question today, is can William Haigh reproduce the form that he was showing on the sand during the winter, back on turf today?  If he does he will win, if he doesn’t then he will bomb out.

Over the years there have been plenty of horses, which have appeared to be well handicapped on turf, having shown improvement during the winter on the all-weather, only to disappoint.  This type of horse usually shows a preference for either Polytrack, which they race on at Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton, or Fibresand, which they race on at Southwell.  The fact that William Haigh had shown his from on both all-weather surfaces, makes me think that he’s not a one trip pony, and his improvement during the winter wasn’t purely down to the synthetic surface.

To date William Haigh has had only the 3 runs on turf, so he still has plenty of time to prove that he’s fully effective on it.  His breeding doesn’t imply that he is going to be restricted to the all-weather either.  His half-brother recorded his 3 victories on turf over 9 and 10 furlongs on soft ground.

Connections have booked man of the moment, William Buick, to ride and this is quite significant, as he has ridden only 5 times for the stable over the past 5 years, so I would guess that connections are looking to leave no stone unturned with their potentially well handicapped horse today.  The owners are a syndicate, which is fronted by Professional Punter John Babb, so I would expect this horse to be well backed today, if connections are confident.   

Flat Analysis

Saturday 14^th July

York

1.55 – Common Touch 1pt win 16/1 generally

This race was priced up yesterday evening when conditions looked as though they were going to be soft.  With no rain overnight, conditions have dried out to good, good to soft in places, with a dry day forecast in York conditions shouldn’t get any slower.

Common Touch has been out of form so far this year, but if bouncing back to last year’s form when winning over 7 furlongs at the course, he should go very close today. 

On his return to action in May, he travelled OK, but ultimately shaped as though needing the run.  Last time he ran in The Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot, where he again travelled OK, but was tightened up around 1 furlong out, which made his effort look a lot worse than it actually was. 

He has fallen a couple of pounds on the back of those 2 efforts, and is also reunited with Lee Topliss, who was on board for his best performance last year.  The drying ground will be in his favour, as will the likely strong pace.

Richard Fahey reports the horse to be working well at home, and at 16/1 he is worth chancing in a competitive race, which has no standout candidates.

3.00 Media Hype 2pt win 7/1

The favourite, Mijhaar, is a horse with a massive amount of potential, and is certainly capable of winning off his current handicap mark.  We backed him at Ascot, and despite racing freely early on, was beaten less than a length into third.  I was disappointed that he didn’t win that day, and my concern with him is that he is a very buzzy horse, who could prove to be his own worst enemy.  Connections are trying him in a hood today, and that could well do the trick, but the percentage call is to take him on, as he is finding winning hard, and this type of horse is often best when fresh.

The one I’m interested in is Media Hype.  He was bought cheaply out of the Luca Cumani sale last Autumn, and has proved a revelation for his new connections.  He was plagued by foot problems during the early stages of his career, and only made it to the race track 4 times by the end of his four year old season. 

The Burke stable have certainly addressed that now though and Media Hype is now a rapidly improving handicapper that has thrived since being pain free for the first time in his life.  His winning run started off a mark of 63, and although he’s now up to 91, the evidence of his performance when winning over course and distance in May, when he won off 83, is that he could defy another hike in the weights.  He could have been called the winner a long way out that day, and although slightly below par last time, I think he can be excused on account of the quicker going, and steady early pace.

Providing he didn’t get jarred up that day, I can see him going very well today, with the draw another factor in his favour.  History tells us that horses in a single figure have a massive advantage in this race on decent ground.

Wednesday 11th July
Kempton
7.20 – Black Cadillac 2pt win 11/2 or bigger
Another days racing, which is likely to be blighted but further heavy downpours and non-runners.  This leaves us with a very competitive card on the all-weather at Kempton, where Black Cadillac looks a fair price in a tricky handicap.
3 runs ago he scored over course and distance, in impressive fashion, when travelling easily behind the early pace, before quickening well to put the race to bed.  He followed this up with a slightly disappointing effort at Wolverhampton.  He again impressed with the way he travelled, but didn’t stay on in the same manner, and was collared late on.  His latest effort was back at Kempton, but this time over 5 furlongs, where he faced an impossible task from the widest draw.
Tonight’s race looks sure to be strongly run, and providing Jimmy Fortune can get him in a decent position early, then he could well bounce back to winning ways.  He is still open to improvement, and although a number of the opposition arrive on dangerous looking marks, most find it hard to win, and the biggest danger should come from the morning favourite, Avonmore Star.  He won last time at Brighton, but doesn’t have any all-weather form of note, and I would guess that connections have been forced to run here as opposed to want to run here, due to the on-going soft ground.

Tuesday 10^th July

Wolverhampton

2.15 – Mawjoodah 2pt win 5/1 generally

Mawjoodah has caught my eye the last twice, and now down in class with her optimum conditions, I feel that she has very strong claims of winning today.

2 runs ago she raced at Wolverhampton over 7 furlongs; she tanked along in the lead, and had everything else hard at it rounding the home turn.  She tired running into the final furlong, but I noted her as one to keep an eye on if she returned to Wolverhampton over 6 furlongs. 

Last time she raced over 5 furlongs on turf at Lingfield.  She was outpaced early, but stayed on into 6^th, which showed that she is still in decent heart.  She is reportedly in foal, and I would imagine that connections will be looking to get a win or two into her before she retires to the paddocks.  

Sunday 8^th July

Ayr

2.30 – Master of Dance 2pt win 15/2 generally

Master of Dance hasn’t been on his game for his last 4 runs, but as a result he is now handicapped to win, and finds himself in the weakest race that he has contested for a long time.

I’ve always thought that he is a horse that is best suited by being held up in a strongly run race.  His last 4 runs have seen him race close to the pace.  Personally I think this has been by design, as connections have been trying to work his mark down.  They have succeeded in doing this, and he has dropped from 70 to 65, which is 2lbs below his last winning mark.

That last victory was over 8 furlongs, when he was held up off a strong pace.  Although his last 4 victories have been over 8 furlongs, I don’t see a strongly run 7 on soft ground posing a problem.  4 or 5 horses in today’s race have front run in the past, so a strong pace does seem likely.

Master of Dance is also reunited with Joe Fanning for the first time since February.  Most of the owner’s horses tend to win when well backed and ridden by Joe Fanning.  So market support would be significant today.

I never like to make excuses for either Toby or David during a losing run, but the weather and ground conditions certainly aren't helping things at the moment.  Conditions at Doncaster yesterday looked awful, and most of the races at the moment are being won by the horse that handles the conditions the best, rather than being won by the best horse in the race.

It's not just punters that are finding things hard at the moment.  I was talking to a trainer yesterday afternoon, who had entered 2 horses for the same race at Sandown.  One of the horses wanted firm ground, and the other requires soft.  With the going described as good to firm in the morning, and the clerk of the course reporting that there was no significant rain forecast, he pulled out the soft ground horse.  Having then battled his way around the M25, he arrived at Sandown to hear that the ground was now soft, so pulled out his other horse too.

These are clearly frustrating times for all, it's just a shame that as punters, we can't cancel our bets once the ground conditions goes against our selections!

Thursday 5^th July

Yarmouth

4.40 – Rufus Stone 1pt win 25/1 generally

Quite a speculative selection, as Rufus Stone is yet to show any worthwhile form, but last time at Newmarket he stayed on well over 8 furlongs, having suffered quite bad interference around 1 furlong out.  Although this form is nowhere good enough for him to win today, he is open to plenty of improvement, having had just the 4 career starts and now encountering quicker ground for the first time.

His half-brother, Mr Irons, has recorded his 2 victories on decent ground, and Rufus Stone’s sire is yet to have a winner on ground softer than good.  Today’s race is competitive, but at 25/1 Rufus Stone looks worth a small investment.

Epsom

7.10 – Swiss Cross 1pt win 10/1 generally

Swiss Cross is certainly a quirky individual, but seems well suited to the unique nature of this Epsom course. His 2 visits to the course have resulted in 1 victory, and a 4^th place finish.  The 4^th place finish was in the competitive 6 furlong handicap on Derby day, when he did well to finish as close as he did from a bad draw.  He hung left that day, so a low draw this evening should help.

I’m happy to take on the 2 market leaders, Sohraab and Baldemar.   Sohraab is an 8 year old who has always shown his best form over 5 furlongs, and Baldemar is a 7 year old who needs to be better than ever to take this.

2nd

7.45 – Henry Allingham 2pt win 7/2

Henry Allingham showed that he handles a downhill undulating course, when scoring at Folkestone last time.  He needs to step up on that effort now venturing into a handicap for the first time, but there is every reason to think he can, as he comes from a late maturing family, which includes Henry Patch, who the stable did well with a couple of seasons ago.

From stall 5 I would expect Neil Callan to track April Fool early, before taking it up in the final furlong.  This doesn’t look the hottest handicap, and I would expect Henry Allingham to prove a cut above today’s opposition.

2nd

Monday 2^nd July

Windsor

8.10 – Keepax 2pt win 9/2 generally

It is at this time every year that 3 year olds start to dominate middle distance handicaps, and Keepax struck me as the type that would be winning shortly at Windsor last time.

George Baker left him with too much to do in what was a steadily run race, and despite looking slightly awkward under pressure (which I put down to inexperience), he stayed on nicely to take third close home.

Today’s race is full of front runners, so will be run to suit, and assuming he has learnt a little from last time, then he holds leading claims off just a 1lb higher mark this evening.

With the first half of the year now behind us, I've compiled our vital statistics and listed them below.

I expect the service to make between 10 - 15 points profit per month, and have set the guys an annual profit target of 150 points.  It will cost me a few quid if they hit the target, but it will be more than worth it if they do!

2012 January - June

182 Bets

31 Winners

A winner every 5.9 bets

292 Points invested

82 point profit

28% return on investment

With most professional punters aiming for around a 10% return on investment, I would hope that you are all happy with the ROI that theservice is currently producing. 

I hope the second half of the year is as fun and profitable as the first.

Wokingham Handicap

Ascot Saturday

4.25 – Scarf 2pt win 25/1 Stan, Victor Tote

Having spent the past 2 years racing in Australia and Dubai, it is no surprise that it took Scarf a couple of runs to acclimatise when arriving in England.   His first two races in England were disappointing, but this resulted in his handicap mark falling from 107 down to 102.
Last time at Doncaster, Scarf took a big step forward though when going down narrowly to an inform rival, but he shaped even better than the end result.  He tanked through the early part of the race and quickened impressively between the 1 and 2 poles, only to get collared by Tariq Too in the final furlong.  The handicapper has raised him 6lbs on the back of that effort, but as an early closing race, he can still run off his old mark on Saturday.
That run was over 7 furlongs, but a well-run 6 furlongs on soft ground could bring about further improvement, and providing the forecast rain does arrive, the current price of 25/1 could look massive.  When going through the race, most of the horses on my shortlist, required good ground or firmer, and although there is no guarantee that the weather forecasters will get it right, I would be amazed if the ground is going to be any quicker than good to soft.
Scarf has plenty of soft ground form in Australia over sprint trips, and as we all know by now, the Australian sprinters are no mugs.
Scarf looks an uncomplicated ride, so I would expect SDS to keep him close to the pace, and look to take it up around the furlong pole.  If that is the case, and the ground is soft, then I think he will take plenty of catching.
You can’t be bullish about a selection in a 28 runner sprint handicap, where they will be spread right across the course, but what I do know is that if the ground is soft on Saturday then Scarf certainly won’t be a 25/1 chance.

Wednesday 20^th June

Ascot

4.25 – Trade Storm 1pt 25/1 Bet 365, Sky, Hills, Ladbrokes

Trade Storm travelled into the race like an improved horse, on his first run of the season at York last time.  Nothing was travelling better than him at the furlong pole, before a combination of lack of fitness and the testing conditions took their toll.  The handicapper has dropped him 2lbs on the back of that performance which from a handicapping perspective gives him a real chance today.
Last year he ran in The Brittania Stakes over course at distance, and again he looked a danger to all at the furlong pole, before tiring in the soft ground in the final 100 yards.  Based on that performance, and back on quicker ground today, he has the beating of Cai Shen and Belgian Bill, yet he is nearly double the price of both of them.
This is as competitive a race as there will be all week, hence him being just a 1pt selection.  But given a bit of luck he should certainly run better than his odds imply.  As a 4 year old he’s certainly open to improvement, and he’s totally unexposed over 8 furlongs on decent grounds.

Kempton

7.40 – Triple Charm 2pt win 4/1 generally

Triple Charm looked like a horse to follow, on her first run of the year at Lingfield in February.  She’s had excuses for her 2 runs since, but now back on Polytrack over 7 furlongs she should regain the winning thread today.
She is bred to be, and physically looks much better than an 84 rated performer.  I think she potentially has around 10lbs in hand form her current mark.  From a decent draw and with Ryan Moore in the saddle, I had made her a 5/2 shot, and was prepared to back her at 3/1, the 4/1 this morning is certainly worth taking.

Tuesday 19^th June

Ascot

5.00 – Ashbrittle 1pt win 9/1 Victor and Sky, 8/1 generally

Over reason years, the best way of finding the winner of this race, has been to find a horse that spent the winter National Hunt racing, and is unexposed over staying trips on the flat.
Ashbrittle fits the criteria perfectly, is trained by David Pipe, who has an excellent record with this type of horse, is ridden by the champion jockey, and is nicely drawn in stall 4.  Despite being a staying handicap, I still favour a horse that is low drawn so that they can be switched off early against the rail, and relax through the race, rather than being trapped out wide, and using up plenty of energy whilst trying to hold a position.
Ashbrittle was trained last year on the flat by Ralph Beckett, and although disappointing in this race, the stable was badly out of form at the time, and that run is easy to excuse.  Prior to that, he had won off this mark at Doncaster over 14 furlongs, and has shaped on several occasions that this type of stamina test could bring about further improvement.  During the winter, he never really took to hurdling, despite winning a maiden, and finishing second a couple of times.  He’s quite a quirky individual so catching him fresh could be the best policy.
There are any number of dangers, so I’m not going to list them all, but at 8/1 I feel Ashbrittle is worth a small bet, on a day that is more one to savour than invest in at Ascot.

Brighton

6.00 – Imaginary Diva 2pt win 5/1 Sky and bet 365, 9/2 generally

A very weak looking handicap, which won’t take much winning.  Imaginary Diva looks to hold strong claims as a horse that is back down to her last winning mark, who has slowly been coming to hand this year.
She has been running respectably in better quality handicaps than today’s, but now her mark has fallen below 60 for the first time this year, she drops to class 6 and given a bit of luck in running she should be too good for a modest looking bunch.
She has winning course form, and Ryan Powell who was on board for her last victory, takes over in the saddle for the first time this year, he is decent value for his 3lb claim.  I had priced her up as a 7/2 chance, so 4/1 or bigger is worth taking.

Sunday 17^th June

Salisbury

2.20 – Gosbeck 2pt win 11/2 generally, 6/1 Paddy Power

Gosbeck is a lightly raced filly that seems certain to improve this year, granted 12 furlongs on decent ground.  Today she gets those conditions, and although this is a competitive looking handicap, I think she is worth backing at 11/2 this morning.

She shaped well on her return to action at Epsom in April, in a better race than todays, on ground that would have been plenty soft enough.  The fact that she shaped as well as she did, would imply that she has improved from 3 to 4, and now down in class on drying ground, she looks well capable of taking this before going back up in class.

The course won’t be a problem, as she shaped really well here last year, when unlucky not to win off this mark.  She was hampered at a crucial stage and did well to finish as close as she did, when beaten less than 2 lengths.

There are plenty of dangers in the race, but Gosbeck is open to the most improvement, and could win well before going on to better things.

Saturday 16^th June

York

2.35 – Navajo Chief 2pt win 6/1 generally.

We put Navajo Chief up as a selection, earlier in the year.  That day he ran respectably, but the impression I got, was that he just wasn’t quick enough on good ground.  He was understandably stepped up  to 10 furlongs next time, and although he ran ok that day, my opinion of him is that he is likely to show his best from ridden aggressively over a mile on soft ground.  Today is the first time that he has had those conditions, since winning a course and distance handicap off a mark of 103 last summer.

He is now down to a mark of 99, in a race that doesn’t look that competitive for the grade.  If he disappoints today, then he is probably a horse to take on for the rest of the summer, as he won’t get many better opportunities of winning a decent handicap than today.

He’s reunited with Fallon today, and this is the type of horse that he excels on, Harry Bentley is a decent young jockey and hasn’t done anything wrong on the horse, but I feel that he could well benefit from stronger handling.

Of the opposition, the morning favourite, Classic Colori does not win very often, and I think he’s a bit soft, Hillview Boy has never shaped as though he wants a trip this short, and I will be surprised if he’s getting quicker at the age of 8 (this strikes me as a sighter for the Ebor for him).  Barren Brook needs better ground, so the biggest danger will probably come from Halfsin, who has form under the conditions, and could still be open to improvement.

In Navajo Chief though we have the best handicapped horse in the race, who has optimum conditions, is in decent form, and represents fair value.  I priced him up as a 9/2 chance, who would be worth backing at 5/1 or bigger, the 6/1 this morning is certainly worth taking.

1st

Friday 15^th June

Goodwood

7.25 – Great Expectations 2pt win 9/2 Hills, Fred and Tote, 4/1 generally

Great Expectations looked an unlucky loser at Newmarket last time.  He travelled well, but suffered interference at a crucial stage and would probably have won with a bit more luck.  He was heavily backed throughout the day, by his inform stable, and off just a 2lb higher mark, I expect connections to gain compensation today.

He had handled the downhill undulations at Leicester the time before, so I don’t see the course providing a problem, and any more rain won’t be an issue, as he’s already proved that he can handle heavy ground.
Moretta Blanche holds obvious claims, and is priced accordingly, but her form is no better than Great Expectations, and he’s open to more improvement than her, having had just 5 races in his career so far.
Corporal Maddox looked unlucky at Lingfield on Tuesday, but he has looked unlucky plenty of times in his career, only to disappoint next time, and the fact that he hasn’t won for getting on for 3 years is enough to put me off him.

Great Expectations is worth backing at 3/1 or bigger, with the general 4/1, and 9/2 with Hills, Fred and Tote, certainly worth taking.