February was our sixth winning month in a row.

After recording a 46% profit on investment for 2011, we are currently making 51% profit on investment for 2012.

Tuesday 28^th February

3.40 Lingfield - Sottovoce 1pt win 14/1 VC Bet

Sottovoce, certainly isn’t a horse to place maximum faith in, but he has shown enough in his relatively lightly raced career, for him to go close off his current mark of 58.

He showed plenty of promise in his maidens, with the pick, being over course and distance as a 3 year old.  His initial handicap mark of 70 looked fair, and it seemed as though a step up in trip would bring some improvement out of him.  That hasn’t been the case, and he now reverts back to 7 furlongs for the first time in a handicap.

His profile would suggest that he’s been a hard horse to keep sound, but if he returns from a 5 week break in decent heart than he should go close. 

When putting up a horse with this type of profile it’s always possible that they could bomb out, hence this just being a 1pt win bet, rather than an each way selection.

Monday 27^th February

4.30 Wolverhampton – Honey Of A Kitten 2pt win 7/1

After an encouraging start for David Evans, Honey of A Kitten has proven very disappointing.  This has resulted in a big drop in the handicap, but there were signs last time at Lingfield that he could be on his way back.

His best run so far for David Evans, was over course and distance off a mark of 82.  He was beaten just over 2 lengths off, and a reproduction of that effort will see him win today off his current mark of 64.  I find it interesting that he’s also entered up over course and distance on Friday.  Today’s race is an apprentice handicap, so he won’t pick up a penalty were he to win today and run on Friday.  This is a loop hole that certain trainers look to exploit, David Evans being one of them.

The favourite Vanilla Rum, is also entered for Friday’s race, and he is still well handicapped despite winning 2 out of his last 3.  He isn’t the easiest of rides though, as he doesn’t do much once hitting the front, and sulks if he gets too far behind.  Joe Fanning has ridden him perfectly of late, but this is Jack Duern’s first time on him, and at around 7/4 this was a big enough negative to take him on.

Saturday 25th February

16:10 Kempton

2pts win Minella Class 9/4

We won't get rich getting stuck into short-priced novice chasers but this one looks too good to miss. This race can be quickly short-listed to 3 candidates which immediately makes it a tempting betting proposition. Minella Class showed enormous potential behind Peddlars cross 2 runs ago and last time out he was travelling like an absolute dream when unfortunate to tip over. Although that was some way out there's no doubt he would have been in the shake up and after For Non Stop franked that form there's no doubt Minella Class is not far off the top rank of novice chasers. Cristal Bonus was highly tried over hurdles and won very well last time out over fences. However it was a weak race and I always prefer horses who have perfomed in a higher class and Cristal Bonus is yet to do that over fences. For me he's not a worthy favourite and should be taken on. Zaynar is starting to revert back to his bad habits after a promising success over fences and I can't see him being good enough. Geraghty being back on Minella Class today is the clincher and I make him my bet of the day.

15:05 Kempton

2pts win Nacarat 4/1

Naccarat can take this race again after winning 3 years ago and being placed in 2 subsequent renewals. In open looking handicaps I always like to side with the horse that's got a real touch of class providing it has conditions in its favour.

Naccarat fits the bill and this contest doesn't actually look that strong when you take a close look. Planet of Sound certainly ran well in the Hennessy but it was one of the weakest renewals for some time and the form doesn't stand up. Given the relatively poor form of Hobbs' yard and the fact Planet of Sounds jumping will be put under pressure by the likely fast pace then I can't see him winning. Miche Le Bon is clearly well regarded and could potentially have a few pounds in hand, however he's had very little racing and weakened badly when fancied for the Hennessy. They'll be taking no prisoners in this race and I'll be surprised if has the stomach for the battle. Deep Purple was somewhat handed his last victory on a plate and Hectors Choice is admirably consistent and sure to run his race without being good enough to win. Naccarats previous 2 runs can be ignored, one on unsuitable ground and the King George running coming too soon. He's had a break and with track and conditions in his favour I fully expect his class to tell today.

Saturday 25^th February

I wanted to put Oasis Dancer up at anything bigger than 2/1 for the 2.50 at Lingfield, as he blew me away with the way he won a competitive handicap at Lingfield last time, and I think he could well be one of the best all weather sprinters of recent years.  When I saw Victor Chandler price him up at 3/1 yesterday afternoon, I was frantically trying to get the message out, but his price fell quicker than a Novice Chaser at Cheltenham, and he is now currently best priced at 15/8.  Being a service that will only put bets up at value prices, I’m afraid the price is just too short, although I do think he holds an outstanding chance.

2.15 Lingfield – Sulis Minerva 2pt win 5/1

The evidence of my eyes, the last couple of times that I’ve seen Sulis Minerva run, is that she is currently much better than her current handicap mark of 80.  When she won one of the qualifiers for today’s final, she travelled like a horse that was far superior than the winning distance suggested.  She followed that up with a cracking effort, over 5 furlongs last time, and now reunited with Raul Da Silva, who is excellent value for his 5lb claim, will take the world of beating, providing stall 12 isn’t too much of a hindrance. 

If she had been drawn in one of the lowest 6 stalls, then she would have been nailed on, but at 5/1 the poor draw is more than factored into her price.  Expect her to be out the back early, but I can see her swinging wide into the straight, and hopefully Raul will get the breaks and deliver her on the line.

3.55 Lingfield – Reposer 2pt win 6/1

Noel Quinlan purchased Reposer, for 12,000 GNS at The Tattersalls horses in training sale last October.  At the time the horse was rated 83, and looked open to improvement.  Since he’s been with the Quinlan stable, I think it is fair to say that he hasn’t been able to show his true colours, and as a result he is now racing off a handicap mark of 70.

I expect this horse to be given a different ride to what we have seen of late.  I’m sure he will break well, make the running and will be far too well handicapped to be beaten.  This looks a competitive little race on paper, but when the Quinlan money is down, they are not a stable that leave it behind very often.

4.05 Doncaster Distime 2pt win 11/2 or bigger 6/1 best price Tote & Bet Fred


Distime is a horse that I’ve been waiting to see on a flat galloping track over 2m6f +.  Today he has those conditions, and despite it looking a competitive race, I think he is well worth backing, as I think he could prove himself to be significantly better than his current handicap mark.

Providing he gets a clear run he should prove himself too good for today’s opposition, 11/2 looks way too big.  If I was pricing this race up I would have had him around the 7/2 mark.

4.00 Lingfield – Hoover 6/1 2pt win

A lightly raced sprinter, who has been gelded during the winter.  He looks nicely handicapped, but it’s his scope to improve that makes him of interest today, against opposition who look largely exposed.

I thought he shaped with plenty of promise, on his return to action 4 weeks ago.  He looked as though he was going to be involved in the finish as they turned for home, but the lack of a recent run told, and he ended up well beaten.

He’s nicely drawn today, and I can see him sitting off the early pace, before making his challenge around the furlong pole, any price around 11/2 is fair value.

National Hunt – D.Matthews

Saturday 18th February

3:20 Haydock

2pts win Giles Cross 13/2 Bet Fred & Tote, 6/1 General

A very competitive looking Grand National trial but only a handful of these can be sure to cope with the conditions and even less will relish them. Giles Cross is a horse who simply glides across soft ground and the heavier the better for him. He ran a cracker for the second year running in the Welsh National and he should get a deserved big race success today. He looks sure to run his race and the sharper track and furlong less today should be ideal for him. Fredo looked in great form last time out, and providing he handles the ground he could give the selection the most to do.

2:25 Ascot

2pt win Cappa Bleu 7/1 Generally

An open looking handicap can go to Cappa Bleu. He looked a classy horse destined for big things when he first went to Evan Williams. Things didn't work out as planned but the signs are that Evan Williams is now working his magic and after an opening win this season he ran a very eye-catching race in the stamina sapping conditions of the Welsh National. Going best of all round the home turn he couldn't make up the ground on the leaders and the jockey soon settled for third place. Better ground and back at his best trip today he should be competing for the honours in this easier looking assignment.

3:35  Ascot

2pt win Smad Place 9/2 Sky Bet & Bl.Sq.

A competitive looking hurdle but the classy Smad Place is well worth a bet. He was very impressive first time out this season and with improvement expected he can take this at the expense of Swincombe Flame. Smad Place could be seen to better effect when he goes over longer distances, he has a World hurdle entry which shows how much the trainer thinks of him. However, he was quick enough to finish just 10 lengths behind Zarkander in last seasons Triumph Hurdle and I expect him to have enough speed over to win today over 2m3f.

Friday 17^th February

2.55 Newbury – For Non Stop 2pt win 100/30 VC and Laddies

Not only do I think For Non Stop is the best horse in today’s race, I think he will prove to be a top notch chaser over the next couple of seasons.

He ran a cracker behind Cue card at the last meeting. I think Walkon's first win over fences has been over-rated and am confident For Non Stop will confirm the placings with him. Mossley has to be opposed due to his jumping and the Nicholls horses will be fancied just because it's Nicholls, but I don’t think their up to this class.

For Non Stop, can be hard to win with, but I think he should have his day today under optimum trip and conditions. 

Wednesday 15^th February


4.30 Lingfield – Edgeworth 2pt win 7/1


Edgeworth has an outstanding record at Lingfield having won 5 races from his 10 visits to the venue.
Last time he looked totally unsuited to the course at Kempton, and came very wide off the final bend, but showed his wellbeing by finishing 5^th of 10, and hinting that a revival could be around the corner.


He is well enough handicapped to win having fallen from a high of 74 last summer, down to his current mark of 65.  Being a confirmed hold up horse, he will need luck in running,  and may touch a bigger price in running, than he is this morning,  but 7/1 looks a big price about a horse who has everything going for him, in a race that is more than capable of winning.

Tuesday 14^th February


1.40 Southwell – Itsthursdayalready 2pt win 13/2 B.365, VC 5/1 General


When running at Southwell, Itsthursdayalready’s from figures are.  2,3,1,6,4,1,3 which is remarkably consistent for a low grade sprint handicapper.  His last victory at Southwell was off a handicap mark of 55, and now returned to his favourite venue, must have a cracking chance off a mark of 53.


After a short break, he looked to have returned in decent heart, when tanking through the race at Wolverhampton last time, before meeting interference rounding the home turn, and shaping as though he would come on for the run. 


I would have put him up as a bet at 4/1, so 5/1 or bigger represents decent value.

With Newbury off, it means another Saturday of all weather only punting for us. 

Lingfield

1.40 Sir Geoffrey 2pt win 10/1 Paddy Power, 9/1 generally

Now down in grade with a decent claimer booked, who has done well for the stable this year, Sir Geoffrey should perform better than his odds would imply.

With the 2 horses drawn below him likely to be dropped in, I can see Sir Geoffrey bagging the rail, and as long as Ryan Powell doesn’t go too hard too early, could well make his class tell.

The last time he competed over 5 furlongs at Lingfield, he finished 2^nd off a mark of 85, he’s now down to his last winning mark of 80. 

Sulis Minerva is a worthy favourite having won his last 2, but I don’t think the drop back to 5 furlongs will suit, and the second favourite, Taajub, is a quirky customer who hasn’t won for 2 and a half years.

2.45 Norville 1pt each way 12/1 Victor, 10/1 Generally

What struck me about this race is that it is stacked full of hold up horses, which are normally reliant on the leaders going off too hard.  I can see Mottley Crewe making the running, and Norville tracking the pace from stall 1. 

Norville is handicapped to win again, having fallen to a mark of 90, with his last victory being off 94 at Windsor last summer.

Now returned to his favourite course, from the perfect stall I can’t see him finishing out of the first 3, and represents a rare each way bet for me.

Wednesday 8^th February

5.30 Kempton Whipphound 2pt win 8/1

One of my colleagues put Whipphound up on his return to action, at Kempton last month as a value bet, on the basis of him being well handicapped, and the Mark Brisbourne stable returning to form after a quite spell.

That day he was a bit disappointing, but I put that down to Shane Kelly sitting too close to the pace.  He seems a horse that is best coming from off a strong pace, with one sweeping run.

This was how he was ridden last time, and he shaped as though he would have gone very close if his run wasn’t stopped at a crucial stage.  He travelled like a horse ahead of his mark that day, and ran on like a horse who’s on good terms with himself.  He has been dropped a further 3lbs on the back of that run, and as long as there is a bit of pace on early, I can see him going very well.

Tuesday 7^th February

4.45 Southwell Jawaab 2pt win 6/1

Jawaab doesn’t do anything quickly, but I expect the Southwell surface to be riding very deep today, which will mean that the ability to thoroughly see out the trip will be the most important requirement this afternoon.

Jawaab has only visited Southwell once, and that was on an occasion when the surface was riding slow.  He won off a handicap mark of 75, and a reproduction of that effort would see him win today.  I find it interesting that the stable run Nolecce in the race.  I think he could be here to ensure that there is a decent pace, like they did with Waabel making the running for Cut The Cackle last Saturday.  Anything above 5/1 is value, with 6/1 currently available.

Saturday 4^th February

Lingfield

2.00 Cut The Cackle 2pt win 7/2

Is currently rated 30lbs lower than at his peak, and a reproduction of his last run at Kempton would see him win this.  Was unlucky not to win there, as he was stopped in his run at a crucial stage.  A hold up horse always needs a bit of luck at Lingfield, but there is plenty of pace in the race, and he should win this with a clear run.

2.30 Memphis Man 1pt 16/1 Paddy Power, 14/1 Coral and Hills

Memphis Man is totally reliant on a strong pace, and if he gets it could go well.  He’s reunited with Matthew Cosham, who has been on-board for his last 3 victories, and showed himself in good order last time, when running on well under a hands and heels ride, when left with too much to do.  On a winning mark and capable of going well if in the mood.

3.00 Numeral 2pt win 5/1

Was thriving when last seen 8 weeks ago.  Rather than picking up a couple of egg and spoon races, connections gave him a break, and I can see him winning this on his way to better things. 

Since he’s learnt to settle, he has looked a much improved horse, and providing he’s not too fresh returning from his break, should appreciate the step up to a mile, and prove himself the best handicapped horse in the race.

3.35 Cashelgar 1pt win 8/1

Finished 2^nd in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot as a 3 year old.  Since then his form has regressed alarmingly.  On his first run for Richard Guest 3 weeks ago, he shaped as though he’s not a lost cause, when travelling well from off the pace, before staying on after he got his second wind.

Now stepped back up to what could well be his optimum trip, I expect Luke Morris to keep him much closer to the pace. Although I was hoping for a juicy double figure price, but he is still backable at 8/1.

Wolverhampton

2.40 Arteus 1pt 12/1

Arteus needed the run when running over an inadequate 6 furlongs, on his debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam last time.  Now stepped back up 7 furlongs, he should go well as long as Chris Caitlin doesn’t use up too much petrol in the early part of the race.  With the exception of Piscean, who I think is best at 6 furlongs, nothing else in the race looks particularly well handicapped, and Arteus looks way overpriced at 12/1.

Thursday 2^nd February

2.50 Wolverhampton

Cantor 2pt win

Cantor is a horse who has more ability than he has shown so far, and he won’t have to improve much to win this race.

The last couple of races that he has contested haven’t suited his running style.  As far as I’m concerned he’s a horse that travels well, tries, but lacks a finishing kick.  Horses of this nature are generally much better suited to Wolverhampton than they are at Kempton.

There looks to be a bit of pace in the race, so I can see Joe Fanning sitting on the rail in about 4^th or 5^th place early, before coming off the rail rounding the final bend and grinding it out.  Joe Fanning has been riding Wolverhampton particularly well this winter, and as he’s ridden Cantor the last twice, he will now know the horse well enough to get the most out of him.

Wednesday 1^st February

5.20 Kempton King of Windsor 2pt win 4/1 +. 9/2 Paddy Power and Victor

King Of Windsor is a very interesting runner, making his debut for the excellent Keith Dalglish.

Formerly trained by Ralph Beckett, King of Windsor was an underachiever.  When he finished 2^nd, as a 3 year old, off a handicap mark of 85, in a decent 8 furlong, Ascot handicap, it looked as though he would make up in to a decent middle distance horse.  Later that summer he picked up an injury which saw him off the course for the best part of a year.

On returning from his lay off, his first 4 races were disappointing, and it looked as though his injury had seriously affected his ability.  His final run for Ralph Beckett saw him stepped up to 10 furlongs, and produce his best run for a long while.  I find it amazing that the owners have decided to sell him for just £11,000, at the Ascot sales in December on the back of that run.

It is my guess that Jim Crowley told Keith Dalgleish to buy the horse, which probably explains why he’s in the saddle rather than Joe Fanning, who is at the meeting and rides the majority of Dalgleish’s horses.

King of Windsor’s performance last time should be good enough to win this, and there is every reason to believe that he can improve on that effort.  He travelled like the best handicapped horse in the race last time, and was only beaten because he came from further back than the 2 horses that finished in front of him.  The winner that day, Emerald Witness has won twice since and is now rated 96 having raced off 83, in King of Windsor’s race.

The Mongoose has been well backed this evening, and has an obvious chance.  But he is still a maiden, and could well be a horse who travels well, but ultimately fails to deliver.