Saturday 21st January
All Weather Analysis – Toby
Morris
2.25 Lingfield
Showboating 2pt win 6/1
As mentioned in Tuesday’s weekly review, Showboating has a
great chance in this 6 furlong handicap. A wide draw would normally be a big
negative, but with plenty of pace in the race, Nora Looby should be able to drop
him in and get a decent tow into the race. It may be worth putting a bet on him
at big in running odds, as if he is to win this, he will be coming from a long
way back, and may drift out to a massive in running price.
Nora Looby who takes the ride, is great value for her 7lb claim, and has
had 2 rides this year for Showboating's trainer, Alan McCabe, and won on them
both, this is another plus.
3.00 Lingfield
Piscean 1pt win 16/1
A strong pace looks likely with Thunderball, Arteus, Fratellino, and
Norville in the line up. This should play to the strengths of the hold up
horses Piscean and Alben Star.
Alben Star returned from a long lay off last time and was backed as if
defeat was out of the question. He only won by a small margin, but travelled
strongly throughout the race, had his run stopped twice but was still powering
away at the finish. A 4lb higher mark won’t stop him, and if he turns up here
in the same from he will win again.
There is always a concern though about horses having their second run back
from a lengthy break, so I’m going to take a chance on that, and suggest a small
wager on Piscean. He’s something of a polytrack specialist,
winning 3 times on the surface last winter, with the last victory off a mark of
93. After a spell in doldrums he has fallen to a mark of 88, but there were
signs last time that he could be on his way back. Trapped wide, but racing
with plenty of enthusiasm in a race which didn’t suit his running style. If
William Carson drops him in from his high draw and gets a bit of cover, he could
well spring a surprise at rewarding odds.
National Hunt Analysis – David
Matthews
3:30 Haydock
Take The Breeze 2pt win 9/1 Stan James 17/2
Coral
It's
been a while since Take The Breeze tasted victory but he's slipped far enough
down the weights to give him every chance in a weakish looking Peter Marsh
Chase.
Heavy
going and a test of stamina look the key to him these days and he'll certainly
get both of those at Haydock. His excellent amateur, Harry Derham, takes off
7lbs, which could be significant, as horses carrying less than 11 stone in
staying handicap chases at Haydock, always have a significant advantage.
He
shaped like he could be on his way back to top form at Chepstow last time, over
what is now an inadequate trip for him. Back up to 3 miles, he looks a danger
to all if Champion trainer, Paul Nicholls, has him back to his best.