Saturday 28^th April

2.20 Ripon

1pt win Memory Cloth 6/1

One of the biggest draw biases in the country is for low drawn prominent racers at Ripon.   It is very rare for a horse in double figures to win.  This immediately narrows the field down to a manageable number.  If Memory Cloth can step up slightly on his run at Southwell last time, then he will have leading claims.

When trained in France he was deemed good enough to run in a Group 3.  Since those days he has obviously had a few problems, but is now handicapped to win.  He couldn’t be in better hands, with Brian Ellison as his trainer, and is just the sort that he excels with.  The booking of Fallon looks significant, having not come in for an overly hard ride last time.  He’s won on very soft ground in France, so today’s conditions should hold no fears.

He is priced a bit shorter than I was hoping for, and would have been a 2pt selection at 8/1 or bigger, but I’m not paid to sit on the fence, so rather than leaving him alone all together, I’ve made him a 1pt selection at 5/1 or bigger.

Chosen Character shaped really well at Pontefract today.  He ran out of stamina under the extreme conditions, but is handicapped to win.

Desperate conditions at Pontefract today, our clients weren't complaining after Seal Rock obliged for our clients in the 3.15.  Toby's analysis below.

Seal Rock 13/2 generally

Seal Rock was a horse I liked last year, and I can see him winning a really decent race this season, possibly making up into a Group class sprinter.  Like most of Henry Candy’s horses they improve with racing, and assuming he’s straight enough today, he should go well in what is a very competitive race.

He is well drawn, the stable has started the season well, and if my opinion of him is right, then he will prove to be much better than a 95 rated horse.

Rather than just posting our daily analysis on the website each day, I'm going to start using this page, to post our views on various racing matters, any new projects that we may be looking at, horses to follow as well as our betting highlights.  Hopefully you will find this both informative and interesting.

Friday 20^th April

2:50 Ayr

Aneyeforaneye 2pt win 8/1 Paddy, Fred and Tote -  backable at 6/1 or bigger

With Laterly, Strongpoint and Dineur in the line up, this looks sure to be strongly run, which will suit Aneyeforaneye perfectly.

She is a free going sort, who hasn't been getting home over 2m4f in heavy ground, but the drop back in trip and a better surface should suit, and she certainly has untapped potential.  The opposition look pretty exposed, and with the Malcolm Jefferson yard still going well, she represents excellent value this morning at 8/1.  I saw her as a 5/1 chance, so she is backable at anything down to 6’s.

Monday 16^th April

430 Windsor Zafeens Pearl 2pt win 6/1 Sky, Victor and Bet 365

Zaffen’s Pearl put in a highly encouraging performance at Kempton last time, when travelling like a horse along way ahead of her mark, only to be mugged on the line by Qaraaba, who has franked the form since when winning at Doncaster in a more competitive race than todays.

The selection is drawn perfectly, and I can see see Shane Kelly riding a patient race and hugging the rail, before producing her to win the race in the final furlong. 

Moone’s My Name looks to be the danger, as a little raced horse with a progressive profile.  He’s having his first race of the season though, and I always prefer match fitness at this time of the year.

National Hunt Analysis

Aintree

3:25 Saint Are 2pt win 12/1 Generally

There are plenty of reasons to make Saint Are a decent bet tomorrow. 

This time last year he improved around a stone when he encountered better ground and 3 miles around Aintree for the first time, I can see a similar scenario occurring tomorrow. 

As a chaser, he has been slightly disappointing, but he is handicapped accordingly.  His last 3 runs have been around Cheltenham on dead ground, and his run at the Festival struck me as a sighter for today’s race.  He jumped the best that he has done, making no significant errors, was outpaced, but never came under strong pressure, as Richard Johnson allowed him to come home in his own time.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that his best performance as a chaser was at Aintree in October, when finishing behind Champion Court, a reproduction of that performance would see him go close today, and I think there is every reason to expect him to improve on that.  As ever with a novice running in a handicap, it is imperative that he gets into a decent jumping rhythm early, if he does I think he will win. 

4:15 Cappa Bleu 1pt win 18/1 Coral and Bet 365

As ever an exceptionally competitive Grand National.  I had planned putting up 2 or 3 selections, but in all honesty I have a shortlist of about 8 horses that I can see winning the race, so rather than getting carried away with the occasion, I will side with just 1 horse, and hope lady luck is on our side.

We put Cappa Bleu up as a bet at Ascot back in February, and I was convinced that with a more forceful ride he would have won.  The fact that he didn’t, means that he still on a winning mark today, and I know that his trainer is absolutely adamant that he has him in the form of his life.

Ground conditions should be perfect, he is a safe jumper, possesses a bit of class, is a strong stayer but not pace less.  Without stating the obvious, he is going to need luck in running, if he does, I can see Paul Molony hunting him around for the first circuit and picking off the opposition second time around, before hopefully producing him at the last to win his race. 

Friday 13^th April
Aintree
3.05 Poquelin 1pt win 8/1 Bet Fred and Tote, 15/2 Paddy and Bet 365
A hot race but I'm keen to take on the favourite as I think he may be vulnerable at this trip and may not be at his peak after his Cheltenham exertions.  Albertas Run loves this time of year and is sure to give a good account of himself but I like the look of Poquelin at a big price.
He was travelling well when unseating in the Paddy Power Gold Cup early on in the season and faced an impossible task when trying to concede the best part of a stone and a half to the Giant Bolster last time out. He ran on really well to take second in that race under top weight and the 4th and 5th have since gone on to win. He was a late withdrawal at Cheltenham and that could prove to be a blessing as he arrives here fresh and should go well with Ruby Walsh back in the saddle.
Leicester
330 Gouray Girl 1pt win 9/1 Paddy, 8/1 Generally
Gouray Girl wouldn’t be the first horse that improves for the switch from the Walter Swinburn stable.  If the change of scenery has worked the oracle, then she arrives today as a very well handicapped horse.
Her best performance to date was when winning a 7 furlong handicap at Newbury, in soft ground off a mark of 89. She turns up today off a mark of 83, and has her optimum conditions.   The Henry Candy stable have had a quiet start to the season, this being just their 3^rd runner of the year, but they are more than capable of getting one ready first time out.

National Hunt Analysis

3:40 Aintree

2pt win Little Josh 11/1 Boyle, Paddy Power and Hills

Little Josh is the best handicapped horse in the race, judged on his rating now being 1lb lower than when he won The Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in 2010.  The stiff National fences that they are racing over will really suit his running style, and I can see him running a massive race.

On his first run of the season he shaped as though he retained most, if not all of his old ability.  Since then he has been in races that he had no chance of winning.  I’m pretty sure that this has been his target all season, and expect him to start considerably shorter than the 11/1 that is currently available.

The favourite Triangular holds an obvious chance after bolting in at Newbury last time, but I don’t think that race took much winning, and he was able to do so on the bridle.  His Achilles heel has always been his breathing, and I will be amazed if he can win this in a similar manner, and would have reservations about him when he comes under pressure.

4:50 Aintree 

1pt win Bourne 10/1 Hills, Sky, Coral 

A really competitive race, but I'm giving Bourne another chance after really fancying his chances at Cheltenham. He wouldn't be the first horse who didn't take to the undulations of Cheltenham and this speedy flat type should be far more at home on this track.

His win at Ascot was very impressive and I still feel there could be a decent race in him off this higher mark. With the assistance of Jason Maguire in the saddle today, he could be seen at his best produced late for a turn of foot in a race that looks sure to be run to suit.

Wednesday 11^th April

2.30 Catterick Madam Macie 1pt win 8/1


A trappy looking contest, but there are plenty of positives about Madam Macie, and she looks decent value at 8/1.
She strikes me as a quirky individual that is probably always best fresh.  This would be supported by the fact that she has won first time out in 2 of the last 3 seasons.  She has won over course and distance, and the only previous time that Graham Gibbons was in the saddle she won.

She was well backed on her last run of last season, over course and distance off a mark off 77.   She races today off 75, and she has won off 79 in the past, so she is certainly well enough handicapped to win.   The wide draw is a negative, but if she breaks smartly, then she could take plenty of catching.

5.10 Nottingham Chiswick Bay 1pt win 10/1


A highly competitive handicap, with any number of potential winners.  Chiswick Bey is worth chancing at 10/1 though as he’s open to plenty of improvement tackling 8 furlongs for the first time, with underfoot conditions to suit, from a stable going well and a decent draw.

He only had the 2 races last year, but is reported to be working well, and is plenty fit enough for his first run of the season.

5.30 Kempton Addikt 1pt win 3/1


We put Addikt up a couple of weeks ago as a decent bet at 7/1, before he was pulled out when the price collapsed, before connections had got their money on.  The case for him going well today is the same.  He’s handicapped to win, has his ideal conditions and has been freshened up by a break.  He can’t be described as great value today at 3/1, hence him being just a 1pt bet.

Tuesday 10^th April

4.45 Yarmouth Jack My Boy 2pt win 9/2 or bigger, 5/1 Tote and Fred


David Evans has his horses in top form, and his sprinters have been going particularly well over the past few weeks.  Jack My Boy shaped nicely on his return to action at Kempton 3 weeks ago, when travelling well, but ultimately looking as though the run would bring him on.  Now reverting to turf, he should be able to show the advantage of a recent run under his belt, with his 2 market rivals both having their first runs of the season.

This time last year Jack My Boy was rated 94, today he turns up off a mark of 79, his best performances last year were with some juice in the ground over a straight 6 furlongs.  Those are the conditions he encounters today.  He is drawn next to the likely front runner, Escape to Glory, and I would expect him to track him early, before outstaying him in the final furlong.

National Hunt Analysis

2.55 Haydock – Tony Star 1pt win 14/1 Bet 365, 12/1 Generally +

0.5 All The Winds 33/1 Generally

A competitive handicap, which looks sure to be run at a strong pace, and the ability to travel and jump fluently will be important.

Both selections have plenty of speed and  have form in big field handicaps.  In my opinion both will be suited by the step up to 2m4f on a flat track.

I’m sure Tony Star has a bigger performance in him than he has shown so far.  His best effort to date, was the only time he’s encountered a biggish field and a strong pace.  That day he went down by 1 and ½ lengths to Dineur, when he couldn’t quite reel him in over 2 miles. 

The Phillip Hobbs team are now in the best form that they have been in all winter which can only help Tony Stars chances.  I can see Richard Johnson sitting out the back early, and producing him with a late run up the home straight.

I can’t resist having a small bet on All The Winds at a massive price.  A decent sort on the flat who stayed 12 furlongs well.  Was progressive last summer over hurdles, but was never going to be suited to running on winter ground, and proved that when disappointing at Exeter and Cheltenham.

Now returning off a break, with ground conditions to suit, he could well outrun his price off a fly weight.  He jumped well in his early races, and shaped at Cheltenham last November like a horse who would be suited by a slightly longer trip.  Being a small horse, he is the sort that will always perform better off a low weight, in a better quality race, than carry top weight against lesser rivals.

4.05 Haydock – Grandads Horse 1pt win 13/2 VC Bet and Stan

A competitive looking handicap with 3 or 4 highly progressive sorts.  The Favourite Fourth Estate is plenty short enough at around 7/4.  He isn’t certain to stay today’s trip, and I’m always happy to take horses on at these sort of prices when there are question marks.

Grandad’s Horse is a very classy horse for Charlie Longsdon who has found his last two assignments a bit beyond him. I still view them as excellent runs though, and the fact they both came at Cheltenham in top quality races is a big positive for me. I'm not convinced it's his best track but he battled really well at the festival to be beaten only 4 lengths and I think he has the class to give the weight away today.

Wednesday 4^th April

5.30 Wolverhampton Angelo Poliziano 2pt win 4/1

If Angelo Poliziano bounces back to the form that he was showing last summer, then he will win today.  Since finishing 2^nd, off a mark of 75 at Ripon in June, the selection has only had 5 runs where he has been below par, but there have been reasons for that, and the handicapper could well have taken a chance by dropping him to today’s mark of 67.  He won off 68 last summer.

On his last 2 runs he has raced wider than ideal, but drawn in stall 2 today, and reunited with Silvestre De Souza, who has been on board for 3 of his 4 victories, are both valid reasons to expect him to show a return  to form today.

Going through the form for today’s racing at Doncaster gave me the same feeling that I expect a gardener to get when he cuts the grass for the first time of the year.   Although it was nice to be watching reruns of last year’s racing, it was also a reminder of how tough some of these big field handicaps are.  At Doncaster today the 5 handicaps that I looked at have 22,22,17,16 and 20 runners, with most of them off the track for 6 months or more.  Bring it on!


2.05 Doncaster Leviathan 1pt win 14/1 General


After Leviathan won at Salisbury in soft ground last summer, I’m sure connections had The Lincoln on his radar.  He missed out on qualifying for that race, but the Spring Mile offers a nice consolation prize.  After Salisbury the way he was campaigned didn’t see him to best effect and as a result he starts the new season on a workable mark.  I’m sure he will win a decent prize this summer.
He’s been gelded since last season, and Tony Newcombe reports him to be moving a lot better than he did last year.  Although he may ultimately be at his best with cut in the ground, I will be surprised if there isn’t enough juice in the ground for him to go well today.
There looks to be pace on both sides of the course, which will give Dane O’Neill options from stall 13.  He will be dropped in early and I can see a strongly run mile on a straight course seeing him to best effect.  It’s a competitive race, but I can see him going very well.

3.15 Doncaster Already advised 1pt win Light From Mars 40/1
Todays bets – Eton Forever 1pt win 7/1 General


The 2 horses in this race that could prove much better than their current marks are Cocozza, and Fury.  Neither have any form in big field handicaps, and both have more hype than substance surrounding them.  As a form student I will always look to take this type of horse on.  I put Light From Mars up ante post, for the reasons illustrated in my ante post analysis, since then he’s been handed what looks to be a useful draw for his running style, and ground conditions look to be perfect.  Hopefully he will run a big race, but I’m also going to put up Eton Forever.

Eton Forever won the Spring Mile at this meeting last year.  That day he looked as though he could make up into a group performer, he never reached those heights, but he’s not the easiest horse to keep sound, and I think he may be best caught first time out.  Roger Varian reports that his preparation has gone perfectly, his win in the spring mile is the best piece of form on offer in the race, and we know that he’s a horse that is suited by a big field and a strong pace.

By putting him up, we have one horse running for us on either side of the track, so should the first race on the card show that there is a significant draw bias, then at least we have both bases covered.

4.55 Doncaster Landaman 1pt win 7/1 Hills and Sky


Landaman struck me as a horse that could make up in to a decent middle distance handicapper as a 4 year old.  Physically he looked weak last year, and he is certainly bred to be better than a 82 rated performer.  From a stable in good form, ridden by a jockey in the form of his life, he should go well in a race whereby he’s potentially the biggest improver.

5.30 Doncaster Alfred Hutchinson 1pt win 7/1 Generally


Raced 3 wide the whole way at Wolverhampton last time but was still too good for the opposition, and showed a good attitude when pulling clear with Southern State.  Geoffrey Oldroyd has always held this horse in high regard, and I think it’s significant that they put him away for the turf season rather than winning a couple of small prizes on the all weather.  He could well prove his initial rating of 75 is on the lenient side.

6.05 Doncaster Veiled Applause 1pt win 12/1 Bet 365 10/1 Hills


Won’t be getting any better at the age of 9, but that is more than reflected by his current handicap mark.  He has always gone well fresh, from a stable that can get them ready early.  He has his optimum conditions at a course where he has a good record, this looks like it will be strongly run, which will suit him perfectly.  I priced him up at 7/1 so the double figure prices this morning are certainly worth taking.