Tuesday 27^th March

2.30 Southwell – Mataajir 2 pt win 11/4

A weak handicap, which won’t take much winning and if Mataajir returns from his 6 week break in top form, he well take all the beating.

He has already won 3 times this winter, but shaped at Wolverhampton last time that this mark isn’t beyond him, when looking as though a step back up to 8 furlongs could see him return to the winners enclosure.  Providing he breaks well, I expect him to sit handy and prove too good for todays opposition.

Caledonia Prince has been in decent form too this winter but last time I felt that the handicapper has hold of him for now.   Josh Baudains who gets on well with the horse, and has been claiming 7lbs off him, is replaced by Jo Fanning today, meaning that he has it all to do at the weights.

The biggest danger could be Myraid, who although is still a maiden, shaped as though there is a race in him when finishing 3^rd over course and distance last time.  If they ride him a bit more prominently today, then he could well chase Mataajir home.

Saturday 24^th March

2:40 Newbury

1pt win Tante Sissi 8/1

A decent looking mare’s hurdle with a strong looking favourite in Kentford Grey Lady, however I think it's worth taking her on after a hard race at Cheltenham just over a week ago. The race was run at a slow pace and she may well have been flattered by her finishing position as the race developed into a sprint. The two I like are Cross the Flags and Tante Sissi. Cross the flags has won impressively twice but there appears no obvious excuse for her defeat behind an average sort on her penultimate run and I feel she may have been flattered by the 2 victories. Tante Sissi looks a typically progressive Alan King horse and an early season run behind Swincombe Flame showed real promise which has been fulfilled with a step up in distance. There could be plenty more improvement to come and she looks the one to be on.

3:40 Newbury

2pt win Ouzbeck 8/1

Emma Lavelles horses have been running well of late and I think she's definitely benefitted from enlisting the services of Noel Fehily. He's riding at the top of his game and I think Ouzbeck will benefit from his assistance. This is his ground and time of year and his run last time was very encouraging behind a couple of very useful types. If Fehily can get him into a good jumping rhythm early on he should go very well. Mon Parrain is always worth taking on in my opinion as he's a weak finisher for me and there's no reason to think that Paul Nicholls' horses should miraculously come back to form following a generally poor Cheltenham. It's not a great race and there's definitely some value in opposing the favourite.

Friday 23^rd March

2.40 Newbury Sound Stage 2pt win 6/1 Coral and Sky

I expect Sound Stage to show a significant upturn in his form today, now that he returns to his ideal distance at his favourite course. 

Sound Stage can race a bit too freely for his own good, so the fact that there looks to be plenty of pace in today’s race, should certainly suit.  He was off the course for 11 months after a decent run at Newbury in November 2010, he finished 2^nd that day over this trip and a reproduction of that effort would see him win today.  He was running a decent race at Newbury earlier in the season before falling, when looking booked for 4^th place.  Off a mark of 120 he looks sure to go well today, in a race that won’t take much winning.

3.15 Newbury Desert Joe 2pt win 4/1

Desert Joe looked all at sea at Fakenham last time, the course didn’t suit him at all, but Newbury certainly should today.  He has shown promise in all 3 runs so far, and I think a mark of 113 could well underestimate him.  Velator is a worthy favourite, but his last 2 victories have been off marks of 86 and 93.  He turns up today off 110, and Desert Joe is going to be a more formidable opponent to what he has been taking on.

4.10 Lingfield Roodee Queen 1pt 25/1

There look to be a number of confirmed hold up horses in this race that are usually reliant on a strong pace, in my opinion it will pay to race handily as this could be falsely run.

Roodee Queen won off this mark at Epsom last summer, and shaped quite well returning from a break at Kempton last time, she chased too strong a pace that day but showed a good attitude, by finishing best of those that had been prominent early.  From Stall 3 Liam Keniry could well get the run of the race, and she looks well over priced at 25/1.

Thursday 22^nd March     

2.35 Wolverhampton Frequency 2pt win 8/1 Hills and Bet365, 7/1 General

The favourite, Greenhead High has an obvious chance, as and improving, in form sprinter, with a decent draw, but he is sneaking up the weights, and I think it’s worth taking him on with Frequency.

He’s back down to his last winning mark, and shaped well when returning from a 5 week break at Lingfield last time.  Despite winning over 7 furlongs, I think a strongly run 6 is perfect for him.  With plenty of pace in the race, I can see Joe Fanning dropping him in, before delivering him mid track up the home straight, and hopefully out staying Greenhead High.  Anything around 7/1 or bigger is worth taking.

4.20 Chepstow Henry Hook 2pt win 7/1 Generally

Henry Hook looks primed to go well today.  2lb below his last winning mark, refitting of headgear which he had on for his last victory, stepped back up to 3 miles having raced over shorter, freshened up by a 75 day break, and the booking of a top 7lb claimer.  7/1 looks well worth taking

Monday 19^th March

4.50 Kempton Crown Counsel 2pt win 6/1 generally

We put Crown Counsel up as a bet a few weeks ago, only for him to be declared a non-runner after banging his head in the horse box.   The reasoning behind the bet that day, was that he’s a well handicapped horse from a top yard, that was in form.

If anything the stable are in even better form now, having sent out 8 winners from their last 15 runners.  I have slight concerns that the drop in trip won’t be ideal, but from stall 1, providing he breaks well, he should be able to sit close to the pace, and will hopefully prove himself to be too good for today’s opposition.

A great day, with Cape Tribulation winning for us at 20/1, and Smad Place running a stormer when finishing placed in the World Hurdle.  I’m slightly disappointed with myself for choosing Peddlers instead of Sir Des Champs.  One of my golden rules down the years has been to take on horses, who have had an interrupted preparation for the festival.   So to ignore it when I have the race between 2 horses is frustrating.  Sir Des Champs put in a top class performance, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him turn up next year as a leading candidate for the Gold Cup.

  

Already advised – Weird Al 1pt each way 20/1

I’m really happy with this ante post bet.  Nicky Henderson has his horses in top form, but Long Run hasn’t been at his best this year, and if they go a strong gallop, his jumping could well fall apart on decent ground.  As much as I would love to see Kauto win, I really can’t see it.

Weird Al’s 3^rd place effort behind the 2 market leaders at Haydock, is the next best piece of form in the race.  He has course form, is still open to improvement, the stable are in top form, and I really can see him running a massive race.   5/1 for the place is a great price, and it’s not impossible that he can win this.

4.40

Bourne 2pt win 8/1

A really competitive race, but I think Bourne has an outstanding chance.

We sent this bet out early today, in anticipation of Smad Place running a big race in the World Hurdle, and franking the Ascot form.  That happened, and we have 8/1 about a horse who is now, best priced at 6/1.

Not only is Bourne’s form rock solid, but I think he can still improve a bundle on it.  The increased test of stamina and better ground are sure to suit.  He is ridden by a conditional jockey that knows him well, and if he gets in a good jumping rhythm early, then I think he will win well.

My first 2pt win bet of the week saw Finians Rainbow oblige for us at 5/1 to put us in profit for the week.  Abergavenny fell too early to know what would have happened.

1.30 Cheltenham

Peddlers Cross 2pt win 7/2 Generally

Peddlers Cross and Sir Des Champs stand out to me in this race.  My view is that they are both potentially top class, whilst the other horses in the race are more likely to be contesting high class handicaps next season, rather than Championship races. 

There are 2 factors that tip the balance in Peddlers favour.  Firstly the form of stable and jockey.  The evidence of this week is that both are in blistering form, and although Peddlers Cross has had a far from perfect preparation for the festival, I find it hard to believe that Donald McCain would risk the apple of his eye, if he wasn’t 100% happy with the horse’s wellbeing.  Everything that the stable has run this week has gone well, the horses have looked in good condition in the paddock, and Jason Maguire is riding out of his skin.

The second factor, is that although both horses have festival form, Peddlers Cross has it in Championship races, whereas Sir Des Champs’s has his form in a handicap.  I priced this race up with Peddlers as a 5/2 shot with Sir Des Champs as a 5/1 chance.  With both trading at 7/2, I have no hesitation in making Peddlers Cross the selection.

2.05

Cape Tribulation 1pt win 20/1 Generally

A typically competitive Cheltenham handicap, where the favourite holds a decent chance, but is priced accordingly.  One at a bigger price that I think is worth chancing is Cape Tribulation.

Last time out, he shaped very well in the same Haydock qualifier, that Alfie Sherrin used as his prep race, before winning on Tuesday.  If anything Cape Tribulation shaped even better that day.  Under top weight, in heavy ground, he travelled like a horse ahead of his mark, and never came under maximum pressure. 

The selection has solid course form, most recently gained when competing at Cheltenham in a handicap chase in January.  That was over a trip short of his optimum, but again he travelled well, and that proves that he handles the undulations of the course. He was rated 155 at his peak, but turns up today off a mark of 142. 

As ever in this type of race, you need luck in running, and there are any number of horses with a chance, but Cape Tribulation has plenty in his favour, and looks overpriced at 20/1.

2.40 – Already advised ante post

Somersby 2pt win 8/1

Finians Rainbow franked the Ascot form when winning today.  At 8/1 we have a decent price about a horse with a decent chance.  If he avoids any serious jumping errors, then he must go close.

3.20 – Already advised ante post

Smad Place 1pt each way 16/1 without Big Bucks in the race

A race that is much more competitive, than I expected it to be when I suggested this ante post bet.  Alan King reports the horse to be in very good order, so hopefully he will go well at a decent price.

4.00

Crack Away Jack 1pt win 7/1 Generally

Crack Away Jack has looked a shadow of the horse that he was when finishing 4^th in the Champion hurdle three years ago.  That is now reflected by his current handicap mark though. 

He shaped as though he isn’t a lost cause when running well over 2 miles at the course, back in November.  He struck into himself quite badly that day, and his run in a handicap hurdle at Ascot last time struck me as a preparation for today’s race.

Paul Nicholls feels that he now has the horse in top form for the first time since he’s been with the yard.  If Ruby Walsh gets him into a decent jumping rhythm early, then I can see him going very well in a race that I don’t think will take much winning.

4.40

Gurtacrue 1pt win 20/1 Generally

An open race with no outstanding candidates. 

Gurtacrue is a horse that Evan Williams has always held in high regard, and he is just starting to benefit from the patient approach that has been taken with him so far.

Last time at Wincanton he still looked green, and I expect him to step up significantly on that performance.  Connections won this race 4 years ago with High Chimes and I expect that Gurtacrue has also been campaigned with this race in mind.  

Oscar Wells, and Trifolium weren’t good enough in their respective races today, whilst the 3 in the handicaps all ran badly.  Unfortunately I didn’t listen to Matt, when he mentioned Alfie Sherrin to me when he was 40/1 last week!!  That’s racing.

1.30 Cheltenham

NO BET

I had intended putting Soll up as my bet in this race, but he is a giant of a horse, who has only raced on very soft ground so far.  With the ground going to be quicker than he has ever encountered, I now just have reservations about how he will handle the undulations of Cheltenham with no juice in the ground. 

2.05

NO BET

I love Simonsig as a horse, and would have fancied him for the Supreme, but was looking to take him on in this event as he has so much speed; I was worried whether he would see his race out over this longer trip.  Now the ground is getting quicker, it should play into his hands.  He’s the best horse in the race, and if he stays he should win.

2.40

NO BET

Like Simonsig, I love Grands Crus, but was looking to take him on in this race, on grounds that he travels so strongly, that I thought he would get outstayed in a race where stamina usually comes to the fore.  Again with ground conditions riding good, I think Grands Crus will have too much speed and class for the opposition, so reluctantly, no bet is the call again.

3.20

Finians Rainbow 2pt win 5/1

Sizing Europe has obvious claims, but that is why he’s a short price favourite.  He is now a 10 year old, and won’t be getting any better, so I’m banking on him being in decline, and Finians Rainbow having a better performance in him than he has shown so far.

Last year Finians Rainbow was a raw talent, whose best form was a notch or two below that required to win a Champion Chase.  This year he looks a lot more settled in his races, and now encountering quicker ground, I can see him upping his game and posting a performance good enough to take this.

Nicky Henderson is a master at preparing horses to peak at this meeting, and there aren’t many better trainers of 2 mile chasers.  In my opinion, Finians Rainbow has had his whole campaign geared up for today, and at 5/1 he does represent a decent bet, as I feel that this is a 2 horse race, and if I was a layer,  I wouldn’t want to be putting him up at anything bigger than 7/2.

4.00

Abergavenny 1pt win 28/1 Stan James and Sky bet, 25/1 general

As tough a handicap as you’re ever likely to find, but I’m happy to have a small wager on Abergavenny at a big price.

He fits my profile for this type of race.  He has solid handicap form at the course, and is open to improvement, tackling this trip for the first time.

He stayed 1m6f well on the flat, and now stepped up in trip as a hurdler, he could make the required improvement to go close.

4.40

NO BET

Alan King is a master trainer of Juvenile hurdlers, and he rates Vendor as good as Grumeti, who has an official rating of 143, and Vendor turns up here off a mark of 129.  If Alan King is right in his assessment then Vendor should win, but taking 4/1 in a 24 runner, Juvenile handicap is not my style, so rather than putting up a “value” alternative, I would rather give the race a swerve.

5.15

NO BET

This is a race that I’ve never had a bet in, and I won’t be starting tomorrow

Tuesday 13^th March

1.30 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

1pt win Trifolium 1pt win 12/1 VC Bet 11/1 Generally

A very open looking Supreme Novices hurdle with a poor favourite in my opinion. Darlan may have been travelling well in the Betfair hurdle, but it was a very slowly run affair, and he took a horrible fall. I'm happy to take him on.

The Irish don't have a standout horse, but the one that I was really impressed with last time was Trifolium.  He won a very good contest last time out and really impressed with the way he travelled and finished his race that day. He looks an improver and a good bet at double figures.  His excellent trainer, reports that he’s decent form and he is taken to get us off to a flying start.

2.05 – Arkle Challenge Tophy

No Bet

Sprinter Sacre could well be the best 2 mile chaser since Moscow Flyer.

I’m not putting him up as a bet though because his price is right, but I would love to see him put in a clear round, and put in the sort of performance that I think he’s capable of. 

2.40 JLT Speciality Handicap Chase

Hold On Julio 1pt win 13/2 take best odds guaranteed if you can.

Not a strong handicap by any means and I'm keen to oppose The Package and Quantativeeasing. The Package finished second in this race 2 years ago off a 2 pound lower mark. In my opinion if he wasn't good enough to win that race, then I don't see him having improved for being 2 years older and off the track for best part of that.

Quantativeeasing is very good at Cheltenham and has been crying out for this step up in trip, however the trends are completely against him being able to win this from top weight

If there is one horse in this race that looks open to big improvement, then it is Hold On Julio.

Apart from The Railway fences, he actually jumped well at Sandown last time, and to win in the manner that he did, tells me that he had significantly more than 12lbs in hand.  I still think he could be at least 10lbs well in.  If I’m correct then he will be very hard to beat.

3.20 The Champion Hurdle

Oscars Well 1pt each way 14/1 get best odds guaranteed

If Hurricane Fly arrives in top form he will win.

I think it’s worth having a small wager each way on Oscars Well though.  Having watched a rerun of last year’s festival races over the weekend, it reminded me how well he travelled in The Neptune.  I hold his trainer in high regard, and she is more than capable of preparing one for the big day.  If they go a strong gallop, I can see him running a massive race. 

He hasn’t been suited by soft ground, and small fields in Ireland this winter, but today’s vastly different conditions, should see him in a much better light.

4.00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase

1pt win  Fortification   33/1 VC Bet 25/1 General

Not a race I normally get involved with, but Fortification is a very interesting runner. Very useful over fences, he was given a school over this course a couple of weeks ago, and Keiran Burke reported that he took to it, like a duck to water.

The course is going to be the firmest it's ever been at a festival, and that may just inconvenience some of the more fancied Irish runners. Denis O'Regan is a superb booking for the selection and I can see him running a really nice race at big odds.

4.40 Cheltenham OLBG Mares Hurdle

NO BET

The admirable mare, Quevega, should win this for the fourth year, but is not a betting proposition at odds on.

5.15 PULTENEY LAND INVESTMENTS NOVICES´ HANDICAP CHASE

1pt win Bless The Wings   7/1 Generally

A competitive handicap to finish day one, but it can go the way of Bless The Wings, who has the invaluable course and distance form.

The race he won last time somewhat fell apart, but he always looked the likely winner and an 8 pound rise is fair. He looks on the upgrade and wouldn't have been suited by being left in the lead last time so the hope is there's more to come. Hunt Ball is a fascinating runner but this is a very different proposition to the races he's been running in recently, and I think he'll get found out today whilst, Triolio D'Alene didn't impress with his jumping despite winning last time.

Inside Track Betting Record 2012

Date

Selection

Stake

Price

Position

P/L 100 per point *Maximum bet 2pt

4th Jan

Scottish Glen

2pt win

13/2 .

1st

1300

7th Jan

Strictly Pink

2pt win

9/2.

un

1100

7th Jan

Titan Triumph

2pt win

3/1.

un

900

7th Jan

Eager To Bow

2pt win

11/4.

DH 1st

1175

9th Jan

Trojan Rocket

2pt win

11/2.

un

975

12th Jan

Avonrose

2pt win

5/1.

1st

1975

12th Jan

April Fool

1pt win

9/2.

1st

2425

12th Jan

Tourist

1pt win

7/2.

un

2325

12th Jan

Bold Adventure

2pt win

7/2.

2nd

2125

13th Jan

Regal Rave

2pt win

7/2.

2nd

1925

14th Jan

Fine Parchment

2pt win

10/1.

un

1725

14th Jan

Ohio Gold

1pt win

11/1.

un

1625

14th Jan

Well Regarded

1pt win

9/1.

4th

1525

14th Jan

Kiss A Prince

2pt win

11/2.

1st

2625

14th Jan

Showboating

2pt win

6/1.

3rd

2425

14th Jan

Captain Dimitrios

2pt win

9/2.

2nd

2225

18th Jan

Satwa Laird

2pt win

9/2.

un

2025

18th Jan

Hidden Glory

1pt win

22/1.

un

1925

20th Jan

Alhaban

2pt win

5/1.

1st

2925

21st Jan

Showboating

2pt win

6/1.

un

2725

21st Jan

Piscean

1pt win

16/1.

un

2625

21st Jan

Take The Breeze

1pt win

9/1.

un

2525

22nd Jan

Whipphound

1pt win

20/1.

un

2425

24th Jan

Super Duplex

2pt win

7/1.

1st

3825

25th Jan

Chilli Green

2pt win

6/1.

2nd

3625

25th Jan

Master Of Dance

1pt win

14/1.

2nd

3525

26th Jan

Royal Acclamation

2pt win

4/1.

2nd

3325

28th Jan

Midnight Chase

1pt win

6/1.

1st

3925

30th Jan

Marksbury

1pt win

20/1.

un

3825

8 wins

29 bets

4700 Invested

3825

81% Profit on Investment

Month

Year

1st Feb

King of Windsor

2pt win

4/1.

un

-200

3625

2nd Feb

Cantor

2pt win

9/2.

2nd

-400

3425

4th Feb

Cut The Cackle

2pt win

7/2.

1st

300

4125

4th Feb

Memphis Man

1pt win

16/1.

un

200

4025

4th Feb

Numeral

2pt win

9/2.

un

0

3825

4th Feb

Cashelgar

1pt win

8/1.

un

-100

3725

4th Feb

Arteus

1pt win

12/1.

un

-200

3625

7th Feb

Jawaab

2pt win

6/1.

un

-400

3425

8th Feb

Whipphound

2pt win

8/1.

un

-600

3225

11th Feb

Sir Geoffrey

2pt win

9/1.

un

-800

3025

11th Feb

Norville

1pt e.w.

10/1.

un

-1000

2825

14th Feb

Itsthursdayalready

2pt win

5/1.

2nd

-1200

2625

15th Feb

Edgeworth

2pt win

7/1.

2nd

-1400

2425

16th Feb

Pastoral Jet

2pt win

7/1.

un

-1600

2225

17th Feb

For Non Stop

2pt win

100/30.

1st

-934

2891

18th Feb

Giles Cross

2pt win

13/2.

1st

266

4091

18th Feb

Cappa Bleu

2pt win

7/1.

3rd

66

3891

18th Feb

Smad Place

2pt win

9/2.

2nd

-134

3691

18th Feb

Hoover

2pt win

6/1.

un

-334

3491

24th Feb

Distime

2pt win

6/1.

un

-534

3291

25th Feb

Sulis Minerva

2pt win

5/1.

un

-734

3091

25th Feb

Reposer

2pt win

6/1.

un

-934

2891

25th Feb

Nacarat

2pt win

4/1.

1st

-134

3691

25th Feb

Minella Class

2pt win

9/4.

un

-334

3491

27th Feb

Honey of a Kitten

2pt win

7/1.

1st

1066

4891

28th Feb

Sottovoce

1pt win

14/1.

2nd

966

4791

13 wins

55 bets

Year

4700 Invested

9400 year investment

51% Profit on investment over the year.

Thursday 8^th March

5.00 Southwell  - Monsieur Jamie 1pt each way 14/1 VC Bet 12/1 General

Monsieur Jamie has an outstanding record at Southwell, with 4 wins and 2 seconds from his 8 starts.  When he last won at the course in November, he tanked through the race, and won cosily off a mark of 77.  He followed that up by finishing 2^nd to Even Stevens, who is now rated 11lbs higher than he was that day, so that looks rock solid form as well.

On the face of it, his last 2 runs have been slightly disappointing.  He wasn’t himself, when disappointing at the course on New Year’s day, and subsequently had 6 weeks off.  He made his return to action when going off too hard over 6 furlongs at Kempton 2 weeks ago, and that should have put him spot on for his return to his favourite venue today.  He’s dropped 2 lbs. on the back of those 2 runs, and 12/1 looks a massive price for a horse with rock solid credentials.

Tuesday 6^th March

2.10 Southwell Sopran Nad 2pt win 4/1

Sopran Nad won off this mark when scoring over course and distance last summer.  Since then he’s been very disappointing, but has only raced once at Southwell during this period.  I feel he could be a “job horse”, who only goes well when connections want him to, and significant support today, would raise expectations. 

The booking of Raul Da Silva looks interesting.  As I’ve said in recent posts, I think he’s as good as any 5lb claimer riding at the moment, and I expect him to make all, and may well take some catching.

5.10 Southwell Elhamri 2pt win 9/2

The best recent form on offer in today’s race was from Elhamri, when winning over course and distance in November, since then he’s been competing in better class races, or racing over conditions that don’t see him to best advantage.

As far as I’m concerned connections have been working him down the handicap for today’s race, and if he arrives in top form, then he should win.   9/2 is more than a fair price about a horse who we know can win off this mark, against a very modest looking bunch

2:05 Newbury 

2pts win Buck Magic 5/2
 
Looked very promising last year and his comeback run at Warwick in a very competitive handicap recently was very encouraging. Kieran Burke has his small string in fantastic form and it's always worth following these small trainers when they hit form as more often than not, all the horses hit form together. He teamed up with Barry Geraghty for Hunt Ball's facile victory last week and the fact he turns to Geraghty again suggests a big run is expected in an open looking race. Alan Kings horses continue in superb form and Godsmejudge rates a danger. 
3:10 Newbury
 
2pt win Fine Parchment 15/2
  
I tipped this last time he ran and with hindsight it was a mistake as he drifted from an early morning 8/1 and went off at 14/1. Clearly it wasn't to be his day and after being outpaced from 4 out, he actually plugged on very well to suggest that all that was wrong was a lack of fitness. He doesn't have any realistic prospects at the festival so I suspect today is his main target. He won this race last year in superb style and is only 3lb higher in the handicap with promising apprentice, Gavin Sheehan on board taking off 10lbs today. He simply has to go well. 
4:35 Doncaster
 
2pt win Takeroc 7/2
 
Takeroc has been given a much easier assignment today compared to his last 2 outings. He was still travelling well when coming down on his penultimate start and ran with great credit behind Finnians rainbow last time out. He's always travelled like a classy horse and I think he's capable of giving the opposition weight today. It looks a significant move to send Harry Derham here for just this one ride considering Nicholls has 3 entered in the big race at Newbury. Derham is great value for his claim and can make it count. Get It On from the in-form Evan Williams yard could give him the most to do.

Saturday 3^rd March


3.55 Lingfield Nelsons Bounty 1pt win 10/1


Although this looks competitive, with the exception of Nelsons Bounty, I can’t see anything that could have more than 3 or 4 lb in hand from their current handicap mark.


The top five in the market all hold solid chances, but I think we know where we stand with all of them.
Nelsons Bounty won first time up last season, in a really competitive 18 runner Ascot handicap off a mark of 81.  He returns to action today off a mark of 82, and a reproduction of that Ascot performance would see him win this.


Paul D’Arcy won a similar race to todays over course and distance, with Night Lily 2 weeks ago, he has booked William Carson again today, and although stall 11 isn’t ideal, no one has been riding Lingfield better than Williams Carson this winter, and if the horse is fit enough then he has to go close.
The owners are big punters, so a significant drift on Betfair would be a worry, but at 10/1 this morning, I’m prepared to take a chance on that.

Thursday 1^st March

8.40 Kempton Hoover 2pt win 10/1

We put Hoover up as a confident selection at Lingfield last time, when he raced a bit too freely early on, but stuck to the task well and was only beaten by 1 1/2 lengths.  He has dropped 1lb since that run, and is certainly well enough handicapped to win today.

Jim Crowley takes over in the saddle, and I think his stronger handling well help the horse and the step up to 7 furlongs could also bring out some improvement too, providing they go a decent early gallop.

10/1 looks too big this morning, and he would be backable at 8/1 or bigger.