Saturday 28th July

Newcastle

3.05 – Dubawi Sound 2pt 5/1 generally

Dubawi Sound is a horse that still has stacks of potential, and it is certainly too soon to be writing him off after a couple of below par efforts.

His first race of the season was back in April, when he was well fancied for The Spring Mile at Newbury.  This was the first time that he had encountered soft ground, which clearly didn’t suit, and the way he stopped that day suggested that he may have had a breathing problem as well.  Since then he has been moved from Roger Varian to David Brown, and he is now fitted for a tongue tie for the first time.

Although a competitive race, I feel that Dubawi Sound could well be a cut above today’s opposition, and I expect him to take this before going onto better things.

1st

Ascot

3.55 – Greylami 2pt win 10/1

Greylami always takes a couple of runs to reach his peak, so the fact that he has shown very little so far this year isn’t a major concern.

Today he races in a much weaker race than he usually contests, and he has his optimum conditions on turf, for the first time in a long time.  He won a course and distance handicap off a mark of 90 in 2010, and turns up today off a mark of 82.  If Robert Mills has him in top form, he should win.  At a double figure price this morning, he represents excellent value.

Thursday 26^th July

Doncaster

6.45 – Song Of Parkes 2pt win 7/1

Song Of Parkes seems best suited to 6 furlongs on a flat, straight course, and quick ground.  Today she gets those conditions for the first time this year.

The last time she had her optimum conditions she won cosily off a mark of 65, and although she isn’t the most consistent, if putting her best foot forward today, then she is more than capable of winning of her current mark of 69. 

2nd

Epsom

7.40 – Rondeau 1pt each way 12/1

There are better handicapped horses on paper than Rondeau today, but he is a horse that seems to save his best for this course and distance, and unlike last time, today’s race looks sure to be run to suit, with 4 or 5 potential front runners in the line-up.

Last time at Epsom, horses ridden prominently, dominated all evening on ground that was pretty dead, and as a result it proved hard to make ground up from the back.  Rondeau did finish best of all in his race though, and showed enough to think that he can still go close, off his current mark.

I expect him to be settled well back early, but providing the leaders do go off too hard, it could well set the race up for Rondeau.  With his stable in decent heart, he is worth chancing at a big price this morning.  

Wednesday

25^th July

Worcester

1.50 – Allerford Jack 2pt win Tote 11/2 and Fred, 5/1 generally

Allerford Jack, looks well handicapped on both his Point to Point form, and his hurdling form, now running in a handicap chase for the first time.  He has been in decent form in points, winning his last two, and assuming Andrew Glassonbury gets him into a decent jumping rhythm early, then he looks to a hold very strong claims against a modest looking bunch.

1st 

Tuesday 24^th July

Southwell- National Hunt

3.10 – The Sliotar 2pt win 6/1 generally

Shaped as though still needing the run, on his 2^nd run back from a lengthy absence last time, but travelled through the race as though he is in fair form, and ahead of his mark.

The fact that his top yard are still persevering with him at the age of 11, would imply that he retains his enthusiasm and they feel he is still capable of winning races.  I doubt he retains all of his ability, but he should still be good enough off a mark of 118, to take this.

2nd

4.10 – Amazing King 2pt win 11/2 generally

Has been in top form on the flat recently, and returns to hurdles off a very low mark.  I think the key to this horse is a tight track on decent going, today he has that, and if he can’t win today, then I doubt that he will win over hurdles again.

Won on his only previous visit to the course in a Novice Chase, and Adam Nichol looks decent value for his 7lb claim.

Monday 23^rd July

Southwell

2.10 – Dark Falcon 2pt 9/2 generally

Dark Falcon stopped quickly at Leicester last time, but the fact that he has been off for 7 weeks since that run, would imply that he had a minor problem that day.  Assuming that has been addressed, and he arrives in top form, then he should go very close today.

He showed his liking for the Fibresand surface, when winning at Southwell last December, he then shaped as if needing the run on his return to action in May, but followed that up with an improved effort when finishing 4^th at Lingfield when he just lacked the pace on the quicker Polytrack surface.

Dark Falcon strikes me as the type of horse that could develop into a Southwell specialist, as he is a grinder that can’t quicken, but appears as the type that can maintain his tempo off a strong gallop.

Windsor

8.40 – Uncle Fred 2pt win 8/1 generally

I’m surprised to see Uncle Fred as big as 8/1 this morning, as he looks extremely well handicapped and has his optimum conditions today.

Last summer he won a course and distance handicap off a mark of 77, today he’s down to 74, and also down to a class 5 for the first time in a long time.  He’s well drawn in stall 1, but will need a little luck, as he is a hold up horse that will be reliant on the leaders going off hard, and will need the gaps to open at the right time.  With Ken’s Girl, Blue Deer, and Calypso Magic in the line-up, there is every chance of that happening.

Saturday 21^st July

Ascot

3.55 – Lightening Cloud 2pt win 10/1

Lightening Cloud put up a cracking effort last time in The Wokingham at Royal Ascot, just lacking the finishing speed of the specialist sprinters over the 6 furlong trip.  Now back up to 7 furlongs and with the ground coming in his favour, everything looks in place for a massive run tomorrow.

You always need a bit of luck in these big field handicaps, but I’m sure that Lightening Cloud is the best handicapped horse in the race, and is still open to plenty of improvement having just had 12 career starts.  I expect this horse to be very well backed tomorrow, hence me putting the bet up this evening.

Market Rasen

2.50 – Red Inca 1pt win 20/1

Travelled like a horse ahead of his mark when tiring late on in a decent juvenile handicap at Sandown in April.  Been in decent form on the flat since, and interesting that connections, who have done really well with their handicap hurdlers in recent years, have targeted this race.

The less emphasis on stamina will suit, and off a fly weight, with a decent apprentice booked, he holds a better chance than his 20/1 would imply.

3.25 – I have dreamed 1pt win 10/1

Looks well handicapped on his Hunter Chase form, now reverting to a handicap for the first time since October 2010.  He finished 3^rd off a mark of 137 that day, but has seemed an improved horse since hunting, which seems to have taught him to relax, and has resulted in him getting further in the process.

On top of that he is now with the Lawney Hill, who has improved plenty of horses from other yards over the past few seasons, and if she has worked her magic on this one, then he could go really well in a very competitive handicap.

1st

Those of you that have been on the betting service for a while, will be aware that I had intended having 2 Tipsters working for us, to cover the flat season this Summer.  Having trialled a number of people earlier in the year, I couldn't find anyone of the calibre that I wanted, so I decided to stick with just Toby for the flat, and have David cover the top end of National Hunt.

One of the reasons I was looking for 2 tipsters for the turf, was that when one tipster was out of form, the other tipster would hopefully be in form, which would reduce the length of a losing run.  This didn't materialise, but I have continued to trial other tipsters over the last few months.  For whatever reason, every tipster that I have trialled over a 3 month period, hasn't managed to produce a profit, with the exception of one guy, who I will come on to shortly.

This losing tipster phenomenon, hasn't just been restricted to people that I have been trialling.  I've been reliably informed that the 2 best known tipsters in the industry, Tom Segal, in the Racing Post, and Hugh Taylor, from At The Races, have had a torrid time of things too.  Hugh Taylor has had only 1 winner from his last 72 bets, whilst Tom Segal hasn't had a winning month since January! Everyone seems to be blaming the weather and the going, but surely everyone can't be having losing runs?

Well no, actually they are not.  Toby introduced me to a guy called Aidan Fox, who used to work for another tipping service a few years ago, prior to going it alone as a Professional Punter.  Aidan doesn't touch the flat, as he focuses solely on National Hunt racing.  His record since I started trialling him has been good, and the types of bets he looks for are similar to Toby's.  He focuses on the handicaps, and very rarely gets involved in novice races.  He's not as keen as Toby to write a detailed analysis behind the bet, but has agreed to write a short script about his selections.

With there being a decent National Hunt card at Market Rasen this weekend, I thought it would be a good time to add Aidan to the team.  His inclusion will not cost you anything extra per month, and it is up to you whether you back his selections, or like I've done, monitor them for a few weeks.

Personally I'm happy with his work, and will be including his selections in our betting record from now on.  I will start sending his bets out in the usual manner, starting from tomorrow morning.

Friday 20^th July

Newmarket

7.50 – Rivas Rhapsody 2pt win 4/1 generally, 9/2 Hills

Normally if a daughter of Hawk Wing had finished 2^nd, 3 times on the trot, I would be looking to take her on, as this would be a sign in common with most Hawk Wing’s, that they are not the most willing under pressure.  That is certainly not the case with Rivas Rhapsody though.

Last time at Kempton, she did absolutely nothing wrong, when going down by half a length, having conceded first run to the winner, Athenian.  Athenian has franked that form since by winning again, and is now rated 10lbs higher than she was at Kempton.

Rivas Rhapsody is just 3lbs higher today, so has obvious claims from a handicapping perspective, and I feel that the stiffer Newmarket course will suit her better today.  Having had just the 6 runs in her career, Rivas is still open to plenty of improvement, and although today’s race looks competitive, nothing else has her potential to improve.  4/1 looks a fair price.

2nd

Thursday 19^th July

Doncaster

8.30 William Haigh 2pt win 8/1 generally

The big question today, is can William Haigh reproduce the form that he was showing on the sand during the winter, back on turf today?  If he does he will win, if he doesn’t then he will bomb out.

Over the years there have been plenty of horses, which have appeared to be well handicapped on turf, having shown improvement during the winter on the all-weather, only to disappoint.  This type of horse usually shows a preference for either Polytrack, which they race on at Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton, or Fibresand, which they race on at Southwell.  The fact that William Haigh had shown his from on both all-weather surfaces, makes me think that he’s not a one trip pony, and his improvement during the winter wasn’t purely down to the synthetic surface.

To date William Haigh has had only the 3 runs on turf, so he still has plenty of time to prove that he’s fully effective on it.  His breeding doesn’t imply that he is going to be restricted to the all-weather either.  His half-brother recorded his 3 victories on turf over 9 and 10 furlongs on soft ground.

Connections have booked man of the moment, William Buick, to ride and this is quite significant, as he has ridden only 5 times for the stable over the past 5 years, so I would guess that connections are looking to leave no stone unturned with their potentially well handicapped horse today.  The owners are a syndicate, which is fronted by Professional Punter John Babb, so I would expect this horse to be well backed today, if connections are confident.   

Flat Analysis

Saturday 14^th July

York

1.55 – Common Touch 1pt win 16/1 generally

This race was priced up yesterday evening when conditions looked as though they were going to be soft.  With no rain overnight, conditions have dried out to good, good to soft in places, with a dry day forecast in York conditions shouldn’t get any slower.

Common Touch has been out of form so far this year, but if bouncing back to last year’s form when winning over 7 furlongs at the course, he should go very close today. 

On his return to action in May, he travelled OK, but ultimately shaped as though needing the run.  Last time he ran in The Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot, where he again travelled OK, but was tightened up around 1 furlong out, which made his effort look a lot worse than it actually was. 

He has fallen a couple of pounds on the back of those 2 efforts, and is also reunited with Lee Topliss, who was on board for his best performance last year.  The drying ground will be in his favour, as will the likely strong pace.

Richard Fahey reports the horse to be working well at home, and at 16/1 he is worth chancing in a competitive race, which has no standout candidates.

3.00 Media Hype 2pt win 7/1

The favourite, Mijhaar, is a horse with a massive amount of potential, and is certainly capable of winning off his current handicap mark.  We backed him at Ascot, and despite racing freely early on, was beaten less than a length into third.  I was disappointed that he didn’t win that day, and my concern with him is that he is a very buzzy horse, who could prove to be his own worst enemy.  Connections are trying him in a hood today, and that could well do the trick, but the percentage call is to take him on, as he is finding winning hard, and this type of horse is often best when fresh.

The one I’m interested in is Media Hype.  He was bought cheaply out of the Luca Cumani sale last Autumn, and has proved a revelation for his new connections.  He was plagued by foot problems during the early stages of his career, and only made it to the race track 4 times by the end of his four year old season. 

The Burke stable have certainly addressed that now though and Media Hype is now a rapidly improving handicapper that has thrived since being pain free for the first time in his life.  His winning run started off a mark of 63, and although he’s now up to 91, the evidence of his performance when winning over course and distance in May, when he won off 83, is that he could defy another hike in the weights.  He could have been called the winner a long way out that day, and although slightly below par last time, I think he can be excused on account of the quicker going, and steady early pace.

Providing he didn’t get jarred up that day, I can see him going very well today, with the draw another factor in his favour.  History tells us that horses in a single figure have a massive advantage in this race on decent ground.

Wednesday 11th July
Kempton
7.20 – Black Cadillac 2pt win 11/2 or bigger
Another days racing, which is likely to be blighted but further heavy downpours and non-runners.  This leaves us with a very competitive card on the all-weather at Kempton, where Black Cadillac looks a fair price in a tricky handicap.
3 runs ago he scored over course and distance, in impressive fashion, when travelling easily behind the early pace, before quickening well to put the race to bed.  He followed this up with a slightly disappointing effort at Wolverhampton.  He again impressed with the way he travelled, but didn’t stay on in the same manner, and was collared late on.  His latest effort was back at Kempton, but this time over 5 furlongs, where he faced an impossible task from the widest draw.
Tonight’s race looks sure to be strongly run, and providing Jimmy Fortune can get him in a decent position early, then he could well bounce back to winning ways.  He is still open to improvement, and although a number of the opposition arrive on dangerous looking marks, most find it hard to win, and the biggest danger should come from the morning favourite, Avonmore Star.  He won last time at Brighton, but doesn’t have any all-weather form of note, and I would guess that connections have been forced to run here as opposed to want to run here, due to the on-going soft ground.

Tuesday 10^th July

Wolverhampton

2.15 – Mawjoodah 2pt win 5/1 generally

Mawjoodah has caught my eye the last twice, and now down in class with her optimum conditions, I feel that she has very strong claims of winning today.

2 runs ago she raced at Wolverhampton over 7 furlongs; she tanked along in the lead, and had everything else hard at it rounding the home turn.  She tired running into the final furlong, but I noted her as one to keep an eye on if she returned to Wolverhampton over 6 furlongs. 

Last time she raced over 5 furlongs on turf at Lingfield.  She was outpaced early, but stayed on into 6^th, which showed that she is still in decent heart.  She is reportedly in foal, and I would imagine that connections will be looking to get a win or two into her before she retires to the paddocks.  

Sunday 8^th July

Ayr

2.30 – Master of Dance 2pt win 15/2 generally

Master of Dance hasn’t been on his game for his last 4 runs, but as a result he is now handicapped to win, and finds himself in the weakest race that he has contested for a long time.

I’ve always thought that he is a horse that is best suited by being held up in a strongly run race.  His last 4 runs have seen him race close to the pace.  Personally I think this has been by design, as connections have been trying to work his mark down.  They have succeeded in doing this, and he has dropped from 70 to 65, which is 2lbs below his last winning mark.

That last victory was over 8 furlongs, when he was held up off a strong pace.  Although his last 4 victories have been over 8 furlongs, I don’t see a strongly run 7 on soft ground posing a problem.  4 or 5 horses in today’s race have front run in the past, so a strong pace does seem likely.

Master of Dance is also reunited with Joe Fanning for the first time since February.  Most of the owner’s horses tend to win when well backed and ridden by Joe Fanning.  So market support would be significant today.

I never like to make excuses for either Toby or David during a losing run, but the weather and ground conditions certainly aren't helping things at the moment.  Conditions at Doncaster yesterday looked awful, and most of the races at the moment are being won by the horse that handles the conditions the best, rather than being won by the best horse in the race.

It's not just punters that are finding things hard at the moment.  I was talking to a trainer yesterday afternoon, who had entered 2 horses for the same race at Sandown.  One of the horses wanted firm ground, and the other requires soft.  With the going described as good to firm in the morning, and the clerk of the course reporting that there was no significant rain forecast, he pulled out the soft ground horse.  Having then battled his way around the M25, he arrived at Sandown to hear that the ground was now soft, so pulled out his other horse too.

These are clearly frustrating times for all, it's just a shame that as punters, we can't cancel our bets once the ground conditions goes against our selections!

Thursday 5^th July

Yarmouth

4.40 – Rufus Stone 1pt win 25/1 generally

Quite a speculative selection, as Rufus Stone is yet to show any worthwhile form, but last time at Newmarket he stayed on well over 8 furlongs, having suffered quite bad interference around 1 furlong out.  Although this form is nowhere good enough for him to win today, he is open to plenty of improvement, having had just the 4 career starts and now encountering quicker ground for the first time.

His half-brother, Mr Irons, has recorded his 2 victories on decent ground, and Rufus Stone’s sire is yet to have a winner on ground softer than good.  Today’s race is competitive, but at 25/1 Rufus Stone looks worth a small investment.

Epsom

7.10 – Swiss Cross 1pt win 10/1 generally

Swiss Cross is certainly a quirky individual, but seems well suited to the unique nature of this Epsom course. His 2 visits to the course have resulted in 1 victory, and a 4^th place finish.  The 4^th place finish was in the competitive 6 furlong handicap on Derby day, when he did well to finish as close as he did from a bad draw.  He hung left that day, so a low draw this evening should help.

I’m happy to take on the 2 market leaders, Sohraab and Baldemar.   Sohraab is an 8 year old who has always shown his best form over 5 furlongs, and Baldemar is a 7 year old who needs to be better than ever to take this.

2nd

7.45 – Henry Allingham 2pt win 7/2

Henry Allingham showed that he handles a downhill undulating course, when scoring at Folkestone last time.  He needs to step up on that effort now venturing into a handicap for the first time, but there is every reason to think he can, as he comes from a late maturing family, which includes Henry Patch, who the stable did well with a couple of seasons ago.

From stall 5 I would expect Neil Callan to track April Fool early, before taking it up in the final furlong.  This doesn’t look the hottest handicap, and I would expect Henry Allingham to prove a cut above today’s opposition.

2nd

Monday 2^nd July

Windsor

8.10 – Keepax 2pt win 9/2 generally

It is at this time every year that 3 year olds start to dominate middle distance handicaps, and Keepax struck me as the type that would be winning shortly at Windsor last time.

George Baker left him with too much to do in what was a steadily run race, and despite looking slightly awkward under pressure (which I put down to inexperience), he stayed on nicely to take third close home.

Today’s race is full of front runners, so will be run to suit, and assuming he has learnt a little from last time, then he holds leading claims off just a 1lb higher mark this evening.

With the first half of the year now behind us, I've compiled our vital statistics and listed them below.

I expect the service to make between 10 - 15 points profit per month, and have set the guys an annual profit target of 150 points.  It will cost me a few quid if they hit the target, but it will be more than worth it if they do!

2012 January - June

182 Bets

31 Winners

A winner every 5.9 bets

292 Points invested

82 point profit

28% return on investment

With most professional punters aiming for around a 10% return on investment, I would hope that you are all happy with the ROI that theservice is currently producing. 

I hope the second half of the year is as fun and profitable as the first.

Wokingham Handicap

Ascot Saturday

4.25 – Scarf 2pt win 25/1 Stan, Victor Tote

Having spent the past 2 years racing in Australia and Dubai, it is no surprise that it took Scarf a couple of runs to acclimatise when arriving in England.   His first two races in England were disappointing, but this resulted in his handicap mark falling from 107 down to 102.
Last time at Doncaster, Scarf took a big step forward though when going down narrowly to an inform rival, but he shaped even better than the end result.  He tanked through the early part of the race and quickened impressively between the 1 and 2 poles, only to get collared by Tariq Too in the final furlong.  The handicapper has raised him 6lbs on the back of that effort, but as an early closing race, he can still run off his old mark on Saturday.
That run was over 7 furlongs, but a well-run 6 furlongs on soft ground could bring about further improvement, and providing the forecast rain does arrive, the current price of 25/1 could look massive.  When going through the race, most of the horses on my shortlist, required good ground or firmer, and although there is no guarantee that the weather forecasters will get it right, I would be amazed if the ground is going to be any quicker than good to soft.
Scarf has plenty of soft ground form in Australia over sprint trips, and as we all know by now, the Australian sprinters are no mugs.
Scarf looks an uncomplicated ride, so I would expect SDS to keep him close to the pace, and look to take it up around the furlong pole.  If that is the case, and the ground is soft, then I think he will take plenty of catching.
You can’t be bullish about a selection in a 28 runner sprint handicap, where they will be spread right across the course, but what I do know is that if the ground is soft on Saturday then Scarf certainly won’t be a 25/1 chance.

Wednesday 20^th June

Ascot

4.25 – Trade Storm 1pt 25/1 Bet 365, Sky, Hills, Ladbrokes

Trade Storm travelled into the race like an improved horse, on his first run of the season at York last time.  Nothing was travelling better than him at the furlong pole, before a combination of lack of fitness and the testing conditions took their toll.  The handicapper has dropped him 2lbs on the back of that performance which from a handicapping perspective gives him a real chance today.
Last year he ran in The Brittania Stakes over course at distance, and again he looked a danger to all at the furlong pole, before tiring in the soft ground in the final 100 yards.  Based on that performance, and back on quicker ground today, he has the beating of Cai Shen and Belgian Bill, yet he is nearly double the price of both of them.
This is as competitive a race as there will be all week, hence him being just a 1pt selection.  But given a bit of luck he should certainly run better than his odds imply.  As a 4 year old he’s certainly open to improvement, and he’s totally unexposed over 8 furlongs on decent grounds.

Kempton

7.40 – Triple Charm 2pt win 4/1 generally

Triple Charm looked like a horse to follow, on her first run of the year at Lingfield in February.  She’s had excuses for her 2 runs since, but now back on Polytrack over 7 furlongs she should regain the winning thread today.
She is bred to be, and physically looks much better than an 84 rated performer.  I think she potentially has around 10lbs in hand form her current mark.  From a decent draw and with Ryan Moore in the saddle, I had made her a 5/2 shot, and was prepared to back her at 3/1, the 4/1 this morning is certainly worth taking.

Tuesday 19^th June

Ascot

5.00 – Ashbrittle 1pt win 9/1 Victor and Sky, 8/1 generally

Over reason years, the best way of finding the winner of this race, has been to find a horse that spent the winter National Hunt racing, and is unexposed over staying trips on the flat.
Ashbrittle fits the criteria perfectly, is trained by David Pipe, who has an excellent record with this type of horse, is ridden by the champion jockey, and is nicely drawn in stall 4.  Despite being a staying handicap, I still favour a horse that is low drawn so that they can be switched off early against the rail, and relax through the race, rather than being trapped out wide, and using up plenty of energy whilst trying to hold a position.
Ashbrittle was trained last year on the flat by Ralph Beckett, and although disappointing in this race, the stable was badly out of form at the time, and that run is easy to excuse.  Prior to that, he had won off this mark at Doncaster over 14 furlongs, and has shaped on several occasions that this type of stamina test could bring about further improvement.  During the winter, he never really took to hurdling, despite winning a maiden, and finishing second a couple of times.  He’s quite a quirky individual so catching him fresh could be the best policy.
There are any number of dangers, so I’m not going to list them all, but at 8/1 I feel Ashbrittle is worth a small bet, on a day that is more one to savour than invest in at Ascot.

Brighton

6.00 – Imaginary Diva 2pt win 5/1 Sky and bet 365, 9/2 generally

A very weak looking handicap, which won’t take much winning.  Imaginary Diva looks to hold strong claims as a horse that is back down to her last winning mark, who has slowly been coming to hand this year.
She has been running respectably in better quality handicaps than today’s, but now her mark has fallen below 60 for the first time this year, she drops to class 6 and given a bit of luck in running she should be too good for a modest looking bunch.
She has winning course form, and Ryan Powell who was on board for her last victory, takes over in the saddle for the first time this year, he is decent value for his 3lb claim.  I had priced her up as a 7/2 chance, so 4/1 or bigger is worth taking.

Sunday 17^th June

Salisbury

2.20 – Gosbeck 2pt win 11/2 generally, 6/1 Paddy Power

Gosbeck is a lightly raced filly that seems certain to improve this year, granted 12 furlongs on decent ground.  Today she gets those conditions, and although this is a competitive looking handicap, I think she is worth backing at 11/2 this morning.

She shaped well on her return to action at Epsom in April, in a better race than todays, on ground that would have been plenty soft enough.  The fact that she shaped as well as she did, would imply that she has improved from 3 to 4, and now down in class on drying ground, she looks well capable of taking this before going back up in class.

The course won’t be a problem, as she shaped really well here last year, when unlucky not to win off this mark.  She was hampered at a crucial stage and did well to finish as close as she did, when beaten less than 2 lengths.

There are plenty of dangers in the race, but Gosbeck is open to the most improvement, and could win well before going on to better things.

Saturday 16^th June

York

2.35 – Navajo Chief 2pt win 6/1 generally.

We put Navajo Chief up as a selection, earlier in the year.  That day he ran respectably, but the impression I got, was that he just wasn’t quick enough on good ground.  He was understandably stepped up  to 10 furlongs next time, and although he ran ok that day, my opinion of him is that he is likely to show his best from ridden aggressively over a mile on soft ground.  Today is the first time that he has had those conditions, since winning a course and distance handicap off a mark of 103 last summer.

He is now down to a mark of 99, in a race that doesn’t look that competitive for the grade.  If he disappoints today, then he is probably a horse to take on for the rest of the summer, as he won’t get many better opportunities of winning a decent handicap than today.

He’s reunited with Fallon today, and this is the type of horse that he excels on, Harry Bentley is a decent young jockey and hasn’t done anything wrong on the horse, but I feel that he could well benefit from stronger handling.

Of the opposition, the morning favourite, Classic Colori does not win very often, and I think he’s a bit soft, Hillview Boy has never shaped as though he wants a trip this short, and I will be surprised if he’s getting quicker at the age of 8 (this strikes me as a sighter for the Ebor for him).  Barren Brook needs better ground, so the biggest danger will probably come from Halfsin, who has form under the conditions, and could still be open to improvement.

In Navajo Chief though we have the best handicapped horse in the race, who has optimum conditions, is in decent form, and represents fair value.  I priced him up as a 9/2 chance, who would be worth backing at 5/1 or bigger, the 6/1 this morning is certainly worth taking.

1st

Friday 15^th June

Goodwood

7.25 – Great Expectations 2pt win 9/2 Hills, Fred and Tote, 4/1 generally

Great Expectations looked an unlucky loser at Newmarket last time.  He travelled well, but suffered interference at a crucial stage and would probably have won with a bit more luck.  He was heavily backed throughout the day, by his inform stable, and off just a 2lb higher mark, I expect connections to gain compensation today.

He had handled the downhill undulations at Leicester the time before, so I don’t see the course providing a problem, and any more rain won’t be an issue, as he’s already proved that he can handle heavy ground.
Moretta Blanche holds obvious claims, and is priced accordingly, but her form is no better than Great Expectations, and he’s open to more improvement than her, having had just 5 races in his career so far.
Corporal Maddox looked unlucky at Lingfield on Tuesday, but he has looked unlucky plenty of times in his career, only to disappoint next time, and the fact that he hasn’t won for getting on for 3 years is enough to put me off him.

Great Expectations is worth backing at 3/1 or bigger, with the general 4/1, and 9/2 with Hills, Fred and Tote, certainly worth taking.

Thursday 14^th June

Nottingham

4.10 York Glory 2pt win 11/4 generally

York Glory was a rapidly improving sprint handicapper last year, and my impression of him after the Portland at Doncaster last September, was that he was likely to pick up a top notch handicap this summer, and would probably be a Group 3 performer at least by the autumn.

Things have not worked out so far this year, but I expect that to change today, and if he wins, I would expect him to go to the Wokingham next Saturday with leading claims.  I wouldn’t put anyone off taking the 20/1 that is currently available for him, for that race.  If he wins impressively today, he could quite easily be cut to around half those odds, as that race currently lacks an outstanding candidate.

First time out this year, he didn’t wear the blinkers, which coincided with his improved form last year.  At Epsom last time, the headgear returned but although he has plenty of speed he doesn’t have the raw speed of a specialist 5 furlong speed ball that you need to be to win “The Dash”, now stepped back up to 6 furlongs, I expect him to be a cut above todays opposition, and this should act as a springboard for the rest of the summer for him.

11/4 looks a fair price, and I would back him at 5/2, should the early price go.