The Inside Track

Saturday 21st January

 

All Weather Analysis – Toby Morris

2.25 Lingfield

 

Showboating 2pt win 6/1

 

As mentioned in Tuesday’s weekly review, Showboating has a great chance in this 6 furlong handicap.  A wide draw would normally be a big negative, but with plenty of pace in the race, Nora Looby should be able to drop him in and get a decent tow into the race.  It may be worth putting a bet on him at big in running odds, as if he is to win this, he will be coming from a long way back, and may drift out to a massive in running price.

 

Nora Looby who takes the ride, is great value for her 7lb claim, and has had 2 rides this year for Showboating's trainer, Alan McCabe, and won on them both, this is another plus.

 

3.00 Lingfield

 

Piscean 1pt win 16/1

 

A strong pace looks likely with Thunderball, Arteus, Fratellino, and Norville in the line up.  This should play to the strengths of the hold up horses Piscean and Alben Star.

 

Alben Star returned from a long lay off last time and was backed as if defeat was out of the question.  He only won by a small margin, but travelled strongly throughout the race, had his run stopped twice but was still powering away at the finish.  A 4lb higher mark won’t stop him, and if he turns up here in the same from he will win again.

 

There is always a concern though about horses having their second run back from a lengthy break, so I’m going to take a chance on that, and suggest a small wager on Piscean.  He’s something of a polytrack specialist, winning 3 times on the surface last winter, with the last victory off a mark of 93.  After a spell in doldrums he has fallen to a mark of 88, but there were signs last time that he could be on his way back.   Trapped wide, but racing with plenty of enthusiasm in a race which didn’t suit his running style.  If William Carson drops him in from his high draw and gets a bit of cover, he could well spring a surprise at rewarding odds.

 

 

National Hunt Analysis – David Matthews

 

3:30 Haydock

Take The Breeze 2pt win 9/1 Stan James 17/2 Coral

It's been a while since Take The Breeze tasted victory but he's slipped far enough down the weights to give him every chance in a weakish looking Peter Marsh Chase.

Heavy going and a test of stamina look the key to him these days and he'll certainly get both of those at Haydock.  His excellent amateur, Harry Derham, takes off 7lbs, which could be significant, as horses carrying less than 11 stone in staying handicap chases at Haydock, always have a significant advantage.

He shaped like he could be on his way back to top form at Chepstow last time, over what is now an inadequate trip for him.  Back up to 3 miles, he looks a danger to all if Champion trainer, Paul Nicholls, has him back to his best.