The Inside Track

National Hunt Analysis

3:40 Aintree

2pt win Little Josh 11/1 Boyle, Paddy Power and Hills

Little Josh is the best handicapped horse in the race, judged on his rating now being 1lb lower than when he won The Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in 2010.  The stiff National fences that they are racing over will really suit his running style, and I can see him running a massive race.

On his first run of the season he shaped as though he retained most, if not all of his old ability.  Since then he has been in races that he had no chance of winning.  I’m pretty sure that this has been his target all season, and expect him to start considerably shorter than the 11/1 that is currently available.

The favourite Triangular holds an obvious chance after bolting in at Newbury last time, but I don’t think that race took much winning, and he was able to do so on the bridle.  His Achilles heel has always been his breathing, and I will be amazed if he can win this in a similar manner, and would have reservations about him when he comes under pressure.

4:50 Aintree 

1pt win Bourne 10/1 Hills, Sky, Coral 

A really competitive race, but I'm giving Bourne another chance after really fancying his chances at Cheltenham. He wouldn't be the first horse who didn't take to the undulations of Cheltenham and this speedy flat type should be far more at home on this track.

His win at Ascot was very impressive and I still feel there could be a decent race in him off this higher mark. With the assistance of Jason Maguire in the saddle today, he could be seen at his best produced late for a turn of foot in a race that looks sure to be run to suit.