The Inside Track

National Hunt Analysis

Aintree

3:25 Saint Are 2pt win 12/1 Generally

There are plenty of reasons to make Saint Are a decent bet tomorrow. 

This time last year he improved around a stone when he encountered better ground and 3 miles around Aintree for the first time, I can see a similar scenario occurring tomorrow. 

As a chaser, he has been slightly disappointing, but he is handicapped accordingly.  His last 3 runs have been around Cheltenham on dead ground, and his run at the Festival struck me as a sighter for today’s race.  He jumped the best that he has done, making no significant errors, was outpaced, but never came under strong pressure, as Richard Johnson allowed him to come home in his own time.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that his best performance as a chaser was at Aintree in October, when finishing behind Champion Court, a reproduction of that performance would see him go close today, and I think there is every reason to expect him to improve on that.  As ever with a novice running in a handicap, it is imperative that he gets into a decent jumping rhythm early, if he does I think he will win. 

4:15 Cappa Bleu 1pt win 18/1 Coral and Bet 365

As ever an exceptionally competitive Grand National.  I had planned putting up 2 or 3 selections, but in all honesty I have a shortlist of about 8 horses that I can see winning the race, so rather than getting carried away with the occasion, I will side with just 1 horse, and hope lady luck is on our side.

We put Cappa Bleu up as a bet at Ascot back in February, and I was convinced that with a more forceful ride he would have won.  The fact that he didn’t, means that he still on a winning mark today, and I know that his trainer is absolutely adamant that he has him in the form of his life.

Ground conditions should be perfect, he is a safe jumper, possesses a bit of class, is a strong stayer but not pace less.  Without stating the obvious, he is going to need luck in running, if he does, I can see Paul Molony hunting him around for the first circuit and picking off the opposition second time around, before hopefully producing him at the last to win his race.