Oscar Wells, and Trifolium weren’t good enough in their respective
races today, whilst the 3 in the handicaps all ran badly. Unfortunately I didn’t listen to Matt, when
he mentioned Alfie Sherrin to me when he was 40/1 last week!! That’s racing.
1.30
Cheltenham
NO BET
I had intended putting Soll up as my bet in this race, but he is a
giant of a horse, who has only raced on very soft ground so far. With the ground going to be quicker than he has
ever encountered, I now just have reservations about how he will handle the
undulations of Cheltenham with no juice in the ground.
2.05
NO BET
I love Simonsig as a horse, and would have fancied him for the
Supreme, but was looking to take him on in this event as he has so much speed;
I was worried whether he would see his race out over this longer trip. Now the ground is getting quicker, it should
play into his hands. He’s the best horse
in the race, and if he stays he should win.
2.40
NO BET
Like Simonsig, I love Grands Crus, but was looking to take him on
in this race, on grounds that he travels so strongly, that I thought he would
get outstayed in a race where stamina usually comes to the fore. Again with ground conditions riding good, I
think Grands Crus will have too much speed and class for the opposition, so
reluctantly, no bet is the call again.
3.20
Finians
Rainbow 2pt win 5/1
Sizing Europe has obvious claims, but that is why he’s a short
price favourite. He is now a 10 year
old, and won’t be getting any better, so I’m banking on him being in decline,
and Finians Rainbow having a better performance in him than he has shown so
far.
Last year Finians Rainbow was a raw talent, whose best form was a
notch or two below that required to win a Champion Chase. This year he looks a lot more settled in his
races, and now encountering quicker ground, I can see him upping his game and
posting a performance good enough to take this.
Nicky Henderson is a master at preparing horses to peak at this
meeting, and there aren’t many better trainers of 2 mile chasers. In my opinion, Finians Rainbow has had his
whole campaign geared up for today, and at 5/1 he does represent a decent bet,
as I feel that this is a 2 horse race, and if I was a layer, I wouldn’t want to be putting him up at
anything bigger than 7/2.
4.00
Abergavenny
1pt win 28/1 Stan James and Sky bet, 25/1 general
As tough a handicap as you’re ever likely to find, but I’m happy
to have a small wager on Abergavenny at a big price.
He fits my profile for this type of race. He has solid handicap form at the course, and
is open to improvement, tackling this trip for the first time.
He stayed 1m6f well on the flat, and now stepped up in trip as a
hurdler, he could make the required improvement to go close.
4.40
NO BET
Alan King is a master trainer of Juvenile hurdlers, and he rates Vendor
as good as Grumeti, who has an official rating of 143, and Vendor turns up here
off a mark of 129. If Alan King is right
in his assessment then Vendor should win, but taking 4/1 in a 24 runner, Juvenile
handicap is not my style, so rather than putting up a “value” alternative, I
would rather give the race a swerve.
5.15
NO BET
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