The Inside Track

My first 2pt win bet of the week saw Finians Rainbow oblige for us at 5/1 to put us in profit for the week.  Abergavenny fell too early to know what would have happened.

1.30 Cheltenham

Peddlers Cross 2pt win 7/2 Generally

Peddlers Cross and Sir Des Champs stand out to me in this race.  My view is that they are both potentially top class, whilst the other horses in the race are more likely to be contesting high class handicaps next season, rather than Championship races. 

There are 2 factors that tip the balance in Peddlers favour.  Firstly the form of stable and jockey.  The evidence of this week is that both are in blistering form, and although Peddlers Cross has had a far from perfect preparation for the festival, I find it hard to believe that Donald McCain would risk the apple of his eye, if he wasn’t 100% happy with the horse’s wellbeing.  Everything that the stable has run this week has gone well, the horses have looked in good condition in the paddock, and Jason Maguire is riding out of his skin.

The second factor, is that although both horses have festival form, Peddlers Cross has it in Championship races, whereas Sir Des Champs’s has his form in a handicap.  I priced this race up with Peddlers as a 5/2 shot with Sir Des Champs as a 5/1 chance.  With both trading at 7/2, I have no hesitation in making Peddlers Cross the selection.

2.05

Cape Tribulation 1pt win 20/1 Generally

A typically competitive Cheltenham handicap, where the favourite holds a decent chance, but is priced accordingly.  One at a bigger price that I think is worth chancing is Cape Tribulation.

Last time out, he shaped very well in the same Haydock qualifier, that Alfie Sherrin used as his prep race, before winning on Tuesday.  If anything Cape Tribulation shaped even better that day.  Under top weight, in heavy ground, he travelled like a horse ahead of his mark, and never came under maximum pressure. 

The selection has solid course form, most recently gained when competing at Cheltenham in a handicap chase in January.  That was over a trip short of his optimum, but again he travelled well, and that proves that he handles the undulations of the course. He was rated 155 at his peak, but turns up today off a mark of 142. 

As ever in this type of race, you need luck in running, and there are any number of horses with a chance, but Cape Tribulation has plenty in his favour, and looks overpriced at 20/1.

2.40 – Already advised ante post

Somersby 2pt win 8/1

Finians Rainbow franked the Ascot form when winning today.  At 8/1 we have a decent price about a horse with a decent chance.  If he avoids any serious jumping errors, then he must go close.

3.20 – Already advised ante post

Smad Place 1pt each way 16/1 without Big Bucks in the race

A race that is much more competitive, than I expected it to be when I suggested this ante post bet.  Alan King reports the horse to be in very good order, so hopefully he will go well at a decent price.

4.00

Crack Away Jack 1pt win 7/1 Generally

Crack Away Jack has looked a shadow of the horse that he was when finishing 4^th in the Champion hurdle three years ago.  That is now reflected by his current handicap mark though. 

He shaped as though he isn’t a lost cause when running well over 2 miles at the course, back in November.  He struck into himself quite badly that day, and his run in a handicap hurdle at Ascot last time struck me as a preparation for today’s race.

Paul Nicholls feels that he now has the horse in top form for the first time since he’s been with the yard.  If Ruby Walsh gets him into a decent jumping rhythm early, then I can see him going very well in a race that I don’t think will take much winning.

4.40

Gurtacrue 1pt win 20/1 Generally

An open race with no outstanding candidates. 

Gurtacrue is a horse that Evan Williams has always held in high regard, and he is just starting to benefit from the patient approach that has been taken with him so far.

Last time at Wincanton he still looked green, and I expect him to step up significantly on that performance.  Connections won this race 4 years ago with High Chimes and I expect that Gurtacrue has also been campaigned with this race in mind.