The Inside Track

Saturday 16^th June

York

2.35 – Navajo Chief 2pt win 6/1 generally.

We put Navajo Chief up as a selection, earlier in the year.  That day he ran respectably, but the impression I got, was that he just wasn’t quick enough on good ground.  He was understandably stepped up  to 10 furlongs next time, and although he ran ok that day, my opinion of him is that he is likely to show his best from ridden aggressively over a mile on soft ground.  Today is the first time that he has had those conditions, since winning a course and distance handicap off a mark of 103 last summer.

He is now down to a mark of 99, in a race that doesn’t look that competitive for the grade.  If he disappoints today, then he is probably a horse to take on for the rest of the summer, as he won’t get many better opportunities of winning a decent handicap than today.

He’s reunited with Fallon today, and this is the type of horse that he excels on, Harry Bentley is a decent young jockey and hasn’t done anything wrong on the horse, but I feel that he could well benefit from stronger handling.

Of the opposition, the morning favourite, Classic Colori does not win very often, and I think he’s a bit soft, Hillview Boy has never shaped as though he wants a trip this short, and I will be surprised if he’s getting quicker at the age of 8 (this strikes me as a sighter for the Ebor for him).  Barren Brook needs better ground, so the biggest danger will probably come from Halfsin, who has form under the conditions, and could still be open to improvement.

In Navajo Chief though we have the best handicapped horse in the race, who has optimum conditions, is in decent form, and represents fair value.  I priced him up as a 9/2 chance, who would be worth backing at 5/1 or bigger, the 6/1 this morning is certainly worth taking.

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