The Inside Track

Wokingham Handicap

Ascot Saturday

4.25 – Scarf 2pt win 25/1 Stan, Victor Tote

Having spent the past 2 years racing in Australia and Dubai, it is no surprise that it took Scarf a couple of runs to acclimatise when arriving in England.   His first two races in England were disappointing, but this resulted in his handicap mark falling from 107 down to 102.
Last time at Doncaster, Scarf took a big step forward though when going down narrowly to an inform rival, but he shaped even better than the end result.  He tanked through the early part of the race and quickened impressively between the 1 and 2 poles, only to get collared by Tariq Too in the final furlong.  The handicapper has raised him 6lbs on the back of that effort, but as an early closing race, he can still run off his old mark on Saturday.
That run was over 7 furlongs, but a well-run 6 furlongs on soft ground could bring about further improvement, and providing the forecast rain does arrive, the current price of 25/1 could look massive.  When going through the race, most of the horses on my shortlist, required good ground or firmer, and although there is no guarantee that the weather forecasters will get it right, I would be amazed if the ground is going to be any quicker than good to soft.
Scarf has plenty of soft ground form in Australia over sprint trips, and as we all know by now, the Australian sprinters are no mugs.
Scarf looks an uncomplicated ride, so I would expect SDS to keep him close to the pace, and look to take it up around the furlong pole.  If that is the case, and the ground is soft, then I think he will take plenty of catching.
You can’t be bullish about a selection in a 28 runner sprint handicap, where they will be spread right across the course, but what I do know is that if the ground is soft on Saturday then Scarf certainly won’t be a 25/1 chance.