Flat Analysis
Saturday 14th July
York
1.55 – Common Touch 1pt win 16/1
generally
This race was priced up yesterday evening when conditions
looked as though they were going to be soft.
With no rain overnight, conditions have dried out to good, good to soft
in places, with a dry day forecast in York conditions shouldn’t get any slower.
Common Touch has been out of form so far this year, but if
bouncing back to last year’s form when winning over 7 furlongs at the course,
he should go very close today.
On his return to action in May, he travelled OK, but
ultimately shaped as though needing the run.
Last time he ran in The Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot, where he again
travelled OK, but was tightened up around 1 furlong out, which made his effort
look a lot worse than it actually was.
He has fallen a couple of pounds on the back of those 2
efforts, and is also reunited with Lee Topliss, who was on board for his best
performance last year. The drying ground
will be in his favour, as will the likely strong pace.
Richard Fahey reports the horse to be working well at home,
and at 16/1 he is worth chancing in a competitive race, which has no standout
candidates.
3.00 Media Hype 2pt win 7/1
The favourite, Mijhaar, is a horse with a massive amount of
potential, and is certainly capable of winning off his current handicap
mark. We backed him at Ascot, and
despite racing freely early on, was beaten less than a length into third. I was disappointed that he didn’t win that
day, and my concern with him is that he is a very buzzy horse, who could prove
to be his own worst enemy. Connections
are trying him in a hood today, and that could well do the trick, but the
percentage call is to take him on, as he is finding winning hard, and this type
of horse is often best when fresh.
The one I’m interested in is Media Hype. He was bought cheaply out of the Luca Cumani
sale last Autumn, and has proved a revelation for his new connections. He was plagued by foot problems during the
early stages of his career, and only made it to the race track 4 times by the
end of his four year old season.
The Burke stable have certainly addressed that now though
and Media Hype is now a rapidly improving handicapper that has thrived since
being pain free for the first time in his life.
His winning run started off a mark of 63, and although he’s now up to
91, the evidence of his performance when winning over course and distance in
May, when he won off 83, is that he could defy another hike in the
weights. He could have been called the
winner a long way out that day, and although slightly below par last time, I
think he can be excused on account of the quicker going, and steady early pace.
Providing he didn’t get jarred up that day, I can see him
going very well today, with the draw another factor in his favour. History tells us that horses in a single
figure have a massive advantage in this race on decent ground.
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